DATE=11/1/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=KOREA / NORTH KOREA STRATEGY
NUMBER=5-44679
BYLINE=ALISHA RYU
DATELINE=SEOUL
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:


INTRO:  South Korean President Kim Dae-jung says he 
believes the current U-S and South Korean policy 
toward North Korea - a policy known as engagement - is 
the best long-term strategy for peace on the 
peninsula.  When the Korean War ended almost five 
decades ago, the two Koreas signed an armistice 
agreement - not a peace treaty - so technically, they 
are still at war.  Now, some South Koreans are 
starting to question whether the current engagement 
strategy is really the best way to deal with the 
North.  V-O-A's Alisha Ryu reports from one of the 
last remaining battlegrounds of the Cold War - the 
divide between the two Koreas.

Text:  In an area called Twin Bridges, 25 kilometers 
north of Seoul, a military training exercise is 
underway.  The maneuvers underscore just how fragile 
the peace is on the Korean peninsula.

            /// Act of artillery exploding - Establish 
and Fade ///

U-S troops from the 16th Armored Division are in the 
middle of an intense mock battle with a South Korean 
tank brigade.

            /// Act of tanks rolling and guns firing - 
Establish and Fade ///

More than three-thousand soldiers and 40 state-of-the-
art M-One-A-One Abrams tanks are taking part in these 
annual joint U-S /South Korean maneuvers to stay ready 
for possible renewed conflict with the North.

During the exercise, soldiers glance nervously at the 
hilltops surrounding the northern edge of Twin 
Bridges.   The Demilitarized Zone (D-M-Z), a heavily 
fortified frontier that separates the two Koreas, is 
just 12 kilometers away.  And just north of it, an 
estimated two-thirds of the one-million strong North 
Korean Army and 80 percent of its firepower are 
believed to be stationed, ready for attack.

If that firepower blazed into action, South Korea 
would suffer a devastating blow.  The capital Seoul 
and its 10-million residents is only two minutes 
flying time from North Korean airfields and within 
easy range of the North's heavy artillery.

Even more worrying for South Korea and its allies are 
North Korea's active nuclear program and its arsenal 
of ballistic missiles.

Last year, North Korea test fired a long-range 
Taepodong missile that flew over Japan before coming 
down in the Pacific.  Newer versions of the missile 
are believed capable of striking targets as far away 
as Honolulu or Anchorage, Alaska.  Indications that 
the Pyongyang government was about to test this more 
advanced missile prompted the United States to make 
North Korea a new proposal this year:  If the 
government in Pyongyang stopped developing the new 
missile, Washington would ease nearly five decades of 
economic sanctions against North Korea.

South Korean President Kim Dae-jung supported the U-S 
offer and the engagement policy it represented.  
President Kim considered the U-S proposal in line with 
his own efforts to ease tensions by stepping up 
economic and other contacts with the North.  Dubbed 
"the sunshine policy," in South Korea, the new 
strategy was a radical departure from the hawkish 
stance of previous Seoul governments.

Under the Sunshine policy, South Korea has approved 
billions of dollars in joint business ventures with 
the North, removed some restrictions on travel and 
donated millions of dollars to help North Korea 
recover from three years of crippling famine.

Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Hong Soon-young 
says he believes the sunshine policy will eventually 
lead to more stability on the peninsula.

            /// HONG ACT ///

      Our immediate goal is not unification.  It is 
      peaceful co-existence.  While we are talking to 
      each other, there is no danger of war.  This is 
      the benefit of the engagement policy.

            /// END ACT ///

So far, North Korea has accepted the idea of 
establishing limited contacts.  Political scientist 
Lho (pronounced No) Kyung-soo at Seoul National 
University sees the new exchanges as a breakthrough 
and a chance for South Korea to guide North Korea 
toward a less militaristic stance.

            /// LHO ACT ///

      It is in our interest to give them the kind of 
      assistance to, at one level, pacify them but on 
      another level, over time, engage them in a web 
      of relations that will eventually lead them to 
      recognize that it is in their interest to 
      cooperate rather than pursue conflict. 

            /// END ACT ///

But other experts in South Korea remain skeptical of 
the sunshine, or engagement, policy.  Mr. Lho's 
colleague at Seoul National University, Paik 
(pronounced Bok) Jin-hyun, says he believes engagement 
actually rewards North Korea for provocative behavior.

            /// PAIK ACT ///

      The success of the sunshine policy really 
      depends on a positive response by Pyongyang.  
      This is really one-sided and lacking balance.  
      How can you change North Korea by ruling out the 
      use of stick while giving out all these carrots?  
      North Korea is a very small country that is 
      isolated and very poor.  Nonetheless, they are 
      developing these terrible weapons which require 
      enormous amount of investment, political will 
      and determination.  You should not underestimate 
      that.  

            /// END ACT ///

Professor Lee Jung-hoon at Yonsei University agrees it 
will not be easy to persuade North Korea to change its 
ways.

            /// LEE ACT ///

      It would, of course, be wonderful if North Korea 
      finally reforms and opens up to the rest of the 
      world.  But I am skeptical because for North 
      Korea, the single most important thing is to 
      ensure regime survivability.  No matter what the 
      West or South Korea does, if nuclear weapons or 
      missiles are considered to be important to the 
      regime's survivability, it will go ahead and 
      develop these weapons.

            /// END ACT ///

Not only the public policy experts worry about such 
things. Similar concerns are beginning to show up in 
the public at large.  Twenty-five year-old Chung Jong-
young, a graduate student, says so far the North has 
shown little willingness to match South Korea's more 
open policies.

            /// CHUNG ACT IN KOREAN - ESTABLISH AND 
FADE ///

She says despite massive economic aid and tourism 
dollars, North Korea still refuses to deal directly 
with Seoul and wants to negotiate instead with the 
United States.  She thinks the policy of reaching out 
to North Korea is turning out to be a waste of time 
and money.

Ironically, skepticism about the sunshine policy could 
give President Kim some bargaining leverage with the 
North.  He can cite what appears to be waning public 
support and make it clear to Pyongyang that the 
government will be forced to give up the engagement 
policy unless it produces tangible results. 

            /// Sound of guns firing and explosions 
///

Meanwhile, back in Twin Bridges, U-S and South Korean 
forces continue their annual military exercises, 
hoping they will never have to use their training in a 
real conflict. (Signed)

NEB/AR/KL/JO/JP




03-Nov-1999 10:38 AM EDT (03-Nov-1999 1538 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.