DATE=10-Feb-99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42577 TITLE=DEBATING NATO'S FUTURE BYLINE= ED WARNER DATELINE= WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: AS NATO EXPANDS, ITS POST COLD WAR ROLE IS UNDER INTENSE DEBATE. SOME BELIEVE IT SHOULD CONFINE ITS ACTIVITIES TO EUROPE; OTHERS FORESEEE A GLOBAL ROLE. STILL OTHERS QUESTION WHETHER NATO SHOULD HAVE ANY ROLE NOW THAT THE SOVIET THREAT IS GONE. A RECENT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE (WED., FEB. 10) DREW STRONG SUPPORTERS OF NATO WHO WERE NEVERTHELESS DIVIDED ON WHERE THE ALLIANCE SHOULD GO FROM HERE. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS. TEXT: STICK TO EUROPE OR TAKE ON THE WORLD? THESE CHOICES FOR NATO WERE DISCUSSED AT A CONFERENCE OF THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON. NATO MUST EXPAND OR DIE, SUGGESTED FORMER U-S DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM PERRY, WHO WANTS THE ALLIANCE TO TACKLE NEW GLOBAL PROBLEMS: // PERRY ACT // PREVENTING THE REEMERGENCE OF A THREAT OF GLOBAL WAR, PREVENTING THE PROLIFERATION AND USE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND DETERRING REGIONAL AGGRESSION ANYWHERE THAT SUCH AGGRESSION THREATENS THE SECURITY INTEREST OF MEMBER NATIONS. I BELIEVE THAT NATO CAN BE THE PRIMARY SECURITY INSTITUTION FOR CARRYING OUT THESE NEW MISSIONS, BUT IT HAS TO BE RECONCEIVED AND RESTRUCTURED. // END ACT // ROBERT ZOELLICK, PRESIDENT OF C-S-I-S, NOTED SOME OF THE REGIONAL CONFLICTS THAT MIGHT INVOLVE NATO, ALONG WITH THE UNITED STATES: // ZOELLICK ACT // IT TURNS OUT THAT THE UNITED STATES, FROM FISCAL YEAR 1990 TO 1997, HAS DEPLOYED IN 45 SO-CALLED SMALL SCALE CONTINGENCIES DEALING WITH THESE SORT OF PROBLEMS, AND THIS COMPARES WITH ONLY SIXTEEN IN THE COURSE OF THE COLD WAR. DURING THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, WE HAVE ON AVERAGE ENGAGED IN A NEW DEPLOYMENT EVERY NINE WEEKS. // END ACT // IT IS CRUCIAL TO MAINTAIN THE MOMENTUM OF NATO EXPANSION, SAID JEREMY ROSNER, A FORMER ADVISER TO PRESIDENT CLINTON ON NATO ENLARGEMENT. HE EXPECTS NEW MEMBER NATIONS TO BE ADMITTED SOON AFTER THE (U-S) PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2000 SINCE THERE IS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR EXPANSION. ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER TO PRESIDENT (JIMMY) CARTER, SAID HE, TOO, LOOKS FORWARD TO NEW MEMBERS, BEGINNING WITH SLOVENIA AND LITHUANIA. BUT HE OPPOSED GLOBAL ASPIRATIONS FOR NATO: // BRZEZINSKI ACT // I SHARE THE RECOGNITION OF THE NEED TO DEFINE A NEW BROADER MISSION FOR NATO, BUT I DO APROACH IT WITH A SENSE OF CONCERN AND CAUTION. I FEEL THAT WE HAVE TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL NOT TO OVERLOAD AN ENLARGING ALLIANCE WITH EXCESSIVELY AMBITIOUS GLOBAL OBJECTIVES. THE ALLIANCE IS AND SHOULD REMAIN IN MY VIEW A EURO-ATLANTIC ALLIANCE. THAT IS ITS CENTRAL MISSION. // END ACT // AND THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT WILL HAVE TO BE DECIDED AS NATO APPROACHES ITS FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY IN APRIL AND A SUMMIT MEETING IN WASHINGTON. MR. BRZEZINSKI FEARS INVOLVEMENT IN TOO MANY CONTROVERSARIES COULD WEAKEN AND DIVIDE NATO, WHICH IS AFTER ALL, MADE UP OF INDIVIDUAL NATIONS WITH THEIR OWN PARTICULAR INTERESTS. STEPHEN WALT, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, WRITES IN "THE NATIONAL INTEREST" THAT EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES ARE MOVING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, AND NATO WILL NOT HOLD THEM TOGETHER, THOUGH ITS LARGE BUREAUCRACY AND MANY FORMER OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO LABOR ON ITS BEHALF. AS THE C-S-I-S CONFERENCE INDICATES, NATO SUPPORTERS DO NOT SHARE THIS PESSIMISM. (SIGNED) NEB/PT 10-Feb-99 8:15 PM EST (0115 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .