DATE=5/13/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40368
TITLE=RUSSIAN REACTION TO NATO
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  THE RUSSIANS HAVE STRONGLY OPPOSED THE EXPANSION OF NATO,
BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW THEY WOULD REACT TO IT.  SO FAR, THE 
REACTION APPEARS MIXED, ENCOURAGING TO SUPPORTERS OF AN ENLARGED 
ALLIANCE, DISTURBING TO THOSE WHO HAVE OPPOSED IT.  V-O-A'S ED 
WARNER REPORTS.

TEXT:  AFTER THE U-S SENATE VOTED TO APPROVE NATO EXPANSION, 
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN COMPLAINED, BUT ADDED RELATIONS 
WITH THE UNITED STATES ARE HEALTHY AND HE WOULD WORK TO RATIFY 
THE START-TWO TREATY ON NUCLEAR ARMS LIMITATIONS.

THE RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY WAS LESS CONCILIATORY.  IT SAID THE 
FATAL MISTAKE OF EXPANDING NATO COULD LEAD TO EXTREMELY NEGATIVE 
CONSEQUENCES, INCLUDING A RELUCTANCE ON THE PART OF THE DUMA TO 
RATIFY START-TWO.

THESE MIXED SIGNALS FROM MOSCOW ARE CONFUSING TO THE WEST, BUT NO
LESS CONFUSING THAN WASHINGTON THESE DAYS, SAYS NIKOLAI SOKOV, A 
MEMBER OF THE RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY WHO IS WITH THE MONTEREY 
INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA.

HE SAYS MANY RUSSIANS ARE ANXIOUS TO PUT NATO EXPANSION BEHIND 
AND GET ON WITH OTHER BUSINESS.  BUT HE FINDS WASHINGTON'S 
AMBIVALENT APPROACH TO NATO TYPICAL OF OTHER POLICY MATTERS 
INVOLVING RUSSIA.  HE SAYS AGREEMENTS ARE HARD FOR MOSCOW TO MAKE
WITH THE UNITED STATES BECAUSE OF WASHINGTON POLITICAL BATTLES, 
ESPECIALLY IN THE LAST TWO YEARS: 

                         // SOKOV ACT //

         THE DYNAMIC OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE WHITE HOUSE AND
         CONGRESS MAKE MANY GOVERNMENTAL ANALYSTS IN RUSSIA QUITE
         PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF DEALING WITH THE 
         UNITED STATES.  AN INCREASING NUMBER OF OFFICIALS THINK 
         THAT WHATEVER YOU AGREE UPON WITH THE ADMINISTRATION, 
         CONGRESS WILL OVERTURN.  I THINK THERE IS A VERY SERIOUS
         WAY THAT THE DOMESTIC SITUATION IN THE UNITED STATES 
         AFFECTS THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES.

                          // END ACT //

MILITARY ANALYST HARRY SUMMERS SAYS HE TOO IS CONFUSED ABOUT 
NATO.  IS IT SUPPOSED TO BE A CONTINUING MILITARY ALLIANCE OR 
SIMPLY A PEACEFUL UNION OF LIKE-MINDED STATES? 

WHILE NATO EXPANSION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY, MOSCOW HAS BEEN 
PRESSURING LATVIA ON ITS TREATMENT OF RUSSIAN CITIZENS, AMONG 
OTHER MATTERS.  NATO AMBASSADORS IN RIGA HAVE CAUTIONED MOSCOW, 
AND U-S DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS HAVE ARRIVED TO HELP BRING 
LATVIAN FORCES UP TO NATO STANDARDS.

COLONEL SUMMERS SAYS THIS IS UNDULY PROVOCATIVE, COMING ON TOP OF
THE VOTE TO EXPAND NATO: 

                        // SUMMERS ACT //

         SINCE WE KNOW, OR SHOULD KNOW, THAT IT CERTAINLY DID NOT
         PLEASE RUSSIA AND IS A POTENTIAL IRRITANT, WE OUGHT TO 
         BE VERY CAREFUL NOT TO EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM AND MAKE 
         IT WORSE.  DOING THIS LATVIA THING, FOR EXAMPLE, IS A 
         CASE IN POINT.  IT IS VERY PRECISELY THE KIND OF THING 
         WE SHOULD NOT BE DOING.

                          // END ACT //

DO NOT EXAGGERATE THE RUSSIAN REACTION, SAYS HELMUT SONNENFELDT, 
A FORMER TOP U-S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER NOW WITH THE BROOKINGS 
INSTITUTION.  FEELING WEAK, MOSCOW MAY CHALLENGE THE UNITED 
STATES ON VARIOUS ISSUES, BUT SOME OF THAT IS BLUSTER.  HE ADDS, 
RUSSIAN OPINION IS DIVIDED:  

                      // SONNENFELDT ACT //

         ANOTHER PART OF THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT AND THE RUSSIAN 
         SOCIETY IS EXTREMELY EAGER TO HAVE VERY ACTIVE RELATIONS
         WITH THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES FOR 
         ECONOMIC AND OTHER REASONS.  SO THERE IS KIND OF A 
         DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE ANGER AND DEFIANCE VERY MUCH 
         CHARACTERIZED BY (FOREIGN MINISTER YEVGENI) PRIMAKOV'S 
         BEHAVIOR ON THE ONE HAND, AND THE CONTINUED VERY KEEN 
         INTEREST AND CONCERN WITH BEING PART OF THE WESTERN 
         WORLD.

                          // END ACT //

MR. SONNENFELDT SAYS RUSSIA IS INVOLVED IN A NUMBER OF JOINT 
ACTIVITIES WITH THE WEST, LIKE THE PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE, AND 
ALSO HAS A ROLE IN NATO.  HE SAYS NATO EXPANSION WILL TAKE A  
LONG TIME, GIVING RUSSIA A CHANCE TO CALM DOWN.   (SIGNED)

NEB/EW/RAE

13-May-98 12:24 PM EDT (1624 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.