DATE=5/4/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40261
TITLE=REACTION TO NATO EXPANSION
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 



/// RE-RUNNING W/MUST CORRECT IN  9TH GRAPH FROM TEXT ///

INTRO:   BY EIGHTY TO NINETEEN, THE U-S SENATE VOTED TO EXPAND 
NATO - A CLEAR VICTORY FOR THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION'S FOREIGN 
POLICY. BUT REACTION IS MIXED BOTH IN RUSSIA AND THE UNITED 
STATES. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS.

TEXT:  "THANK YOU, AMERICA," SAID POLISH PRIME MINISTER JERZY 
BUZEK ON TELEVISION IN WARSAW.

HE WAS REFERRING TO THE U-S SENATE VOTE TO EXPAND NATO TO INCLUDE
POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY. OTHERS WERE EQUALLY 
GRATEFUL IN THE NEWLY ADMITTED EASTERN EUROPEAN NATIONS. MANY 
SAID THE DECISION UNDID THE 1945 YALTA AGREEMENT THAT CONSIGNED 
THESE COUNTRIES TO THE SOVIET UNION, AND IT WOULD OFFER 
PROTECTION AGAINST A POSSIBLE RENEWAL OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.

WHILE RUSSIAN POLITICIANS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM HAVE OBJECTED TO 
NATO EXPANSION, THE GENERAL RESPONSE IN RUSSIA SEEMED MUTED. 
RUSSIA AT LEAST HAS A VOICE, THOUGH NO VETO, IN THE EXPANDED 
NATO, AND MANY MOSCOW BUSINESSMEN ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH 
OBTAINING WESTERN INVESTMENT.     

WHILE NATO HISTORICALLY HAS BEEN DIRECTED AGAINST RUSSIA. THE 
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION OFFERED A BROADER REASON FOR EXPANSION. 
AFTER THE SENATE VOTE, PRESIDENT CLINTON SAID THE NEW NATO WILL 
NOT ONLY PREVENT WAR BUT ALSO STRENGTHEN DEMOCRACY AND ENCOURAGE 
TRADE.

IN A RECENT SPEECH, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SAMUEL BERGER SAID 
NATO IS ONE OF A NUMBER OF U-S INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS: 

                                // BERGER ACT //

         IN EACH INSTANCE, THE OBJECTIVES ARE THE SAME: TO 
         PROMOTE AMERICAN INTERESTS AND VALUES BY ENTANGLING 
         NATIONS IN A WEB OF MUTUALLY REINFORCING ARRANGEMENTS 
         THAT MAXIMIZE BOTH THE BENEFITS OF COMPLIANCE AND THE 
         COSTS OF TRANSGRESSION. MEMBERSHIP IN AN EXPANDED NATO 
         REQUIRES ADHERENCE TO BASIC DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES, THE 
         RULE OF LAW AND CIVILIAN CONTROL OF THE MILITARY. 

                                  // END ACT //

OTHER AMERICANS ARE NOT SO OPTIMISTIC. SCHOLAR-DIPLOMAT GEORGE 
KENNAN TOLD THE NEW YORK TIMES NATO EXPANSION LAUNCHES A NEW COLD
WAR. "THERE WAS NO REASON FOR THIS WHATSOEVER. NO ONE WAS 
THREATENING ANYBODY ELSE. WE HAVE SIGNED UP TO PROTECT A WHOLE 
SERIES OF COUNTRIES, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE NEITHER THE RESOURCES 
NOR THE INTENTION TO DO SO IN ANY SERIOUS WAY."

VARIOUS ANALYSTS, RANGING FROM THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS 
TO THE NAVAL WAR COLLEGE, SAY AS A RESULT OF NATO EXPANSION, 
RUSSIA IS MORE FIRMLY OPPOSING U-S POLICIES IN THE BALKANS AND 
CYPRUS AND PRESSURING NEIGHBORS LIKE LATVIA AND GEORGIA. THERE 
ARE INCREASING TENSIONS BETWEEN POLAND AND BELARUS, WHICH IS 
CLOSELY ALLIED TO MOSCOW. ACCUSING POLAND OF TRYING TO 
DESTABILIZE BELARUS, ITS GOVERNMENT PLEDGES TO RETALIATE.  

OPPONENTS LIKE SUSAN EISENHOWER,  G/R/A/N/D DAUGHTER OF THE 
FORMER U-S PRESIDENT, SAY THE UNITED STATES HAS SACRIFICED MUCH 
OF ITS LEVERAGE ON RUSSIA BY EXPANDING NATO. IT WILL BE HARDER 
NOW TO MAKE DEMANDS IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS RUSSIAN INTERVENTION 
IN THE COUNTRIES ON ITS PERIPHERY THAT DO NOT BELONG TO NATO. 

BUT MICHAEL MCFAUL, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT STANFORD 
UNIVERSITY, SAYS AS MUCH AS RUSSIANS DISLIKE NATO EXPANSION, IT 
IS NOT A DECISIVE FACTOR IN THEIR BEHAVIOUR:  

                                // MCFAUL ACT //

         WE ARE IN THE BEGINNING OF AN ERA OF RUSSIA'S 
         REASSERTION AS A REGIONAL POWER, AND THAT WOULD HAVE 
         HAPPENED WHETHER NATO EXPANDED OR NOT. RUSSIA HAS GONE 
         THROUGH A PERIOD OF REVOLUTION DOMESTICALLY, AND SO IT 
         HAS BEEN VERY WEAK AS AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYER. BUT AS 
         THEY COME OUT OF THAT REVOLUTIONARY PERIOD, YOU ARE 
         GOING TO SEE  MORE AND MORE OF RUSSIA REASSERTING ITSELF
         AS A WORLD POWER. WE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY THAT.

                                  // END ACT //

PROFESSOR MCFAUL THINKS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF NATO EXPANSION 
RUSSIA SHOULD BE INCLUDED. THIS MAY NOT SEEM VERY REALISTIC AT 
THE MOMENT, HE SAYS, BUT STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED WHEN 
CREATIVE DIPLOMACY IS TRIED.  (SIGNED) 


NEB/EW/PLM


04-May-98 8:11 PM EDT (0011 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.