DATE=03/05/98
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-10603
TITLE=EXPANDING NATO: THE DEBATE GOES ON
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
INTRO: THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE HAS VOTED
OVERWHELMINGLY TO RESHAPE THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION,
ADDING THREE FORMER FOES, POLAND, HUNGARY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC,
TO THE ALLIANCE. THE MEASURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKEN UP AND
APPROVED BY THE FULL SENATE LATER THIS MONTH. NONE OF THIS,
HOWEVER, HAS QUELLED THE VIGOROUS DEBATE IN THE NATION REGARDING
THE EFFICACY OF EXPANDING THE ORGANIZATION, PRIMARILY SET UP TO
DEAL WITH THE SOVIET ARMY'S THREAT TO WESTERN EUROPE DURING THE
COLD WAR.
WE CALL ON ________________ FOR THIS SURVEY OF THE U-S PRESS AS
THE MOVE TO EXPAND NATO GATHERS SPEED IN THE UNITED STATES.
TEXT: SEVERAL NEWSPAPERS, AMONG THEM "THE NEW YORK TIMES,"
CONTINUE TO COUNSEL THAT THIS IS A BAD IDEA FOR AT LEAST TWO
REASONS. IT IS, "THE TIMES" WARNS, GOING TO COST MUCH MORE THAN
THE ADMINISTRATION'S ESTIMATES, AND SECONDLY, IT WILL ALMOST
SURELY ALIENATE THE RUSSIANS, AND MAY GIVE RISE TO EVEN MORE
ANTI-U-S SENTIMENT AMONG MOSCOW'S RIGHT WING CRITICS THAN THEY
NOW EXPRESS.
HOWEVER, OTHER PAPERS AGREE WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON THAT
STRENGTHENING THE ALLIANCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEATH OF THE COLD
WAR MAKES SENSE, AS A WAY OF GUARANTEEING THE SPREAD AND
STRENGTHENING OF DEMOCRACY IN EASTERN EUROPE.
WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING IN TEXAS, WHERE "THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS"
SAYS THE SENATE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK.
VOICE: "THE SENATE SHOULD RATIFY NATO MEMBERSHIP FOR POLAND,
HUNGARY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC. IF IT DECLINES [TO
RATIFY NATO MEMBERSHIP], THOSE NATIONS WOULD INHABIT A
'GRAY ZONE' OF INSECURITY BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA,
INCREASING THE RISK OF INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD BE DRAWN INTO ANOTHER
EUROPEAN WAR. THE CONCERNS ABOUT RUSSIA ARE LEGITIMATE.
BUT RUSSIA IS GETTING USED TO HAVING LOST ITS VASSAL
STATES. IT IS BEGINNING TO UNDERSTAND THAT NATO
MEMBERSHIP FOR POLAND, HUNGARY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC
WILL MAKE IT MORE, NOT LESS, SECURE. ITS PEOPLE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND
STRENGTHENING DEMOCRACY THAN ABOUT NATO. BARRING
SOME UNLIKELY AUTHORITARIAN BACKLASH, ITS PARLIAMENT
WILL RATIFY THE NUCLEAR ARMS TREATY. ..... NATO IS
EMERGING AS SOMETHING RADICALLY NEW. DON'T THINK OF IT
ANYMORE AS A LOT OF TANKS, TROOPS AND AIRPLANES
CONGREGATED ALONG A LONG FRONT. THINK OF IT AS
PROJECTING STABILITY AND MANAGING CRISES IN A BROADER
STRATEGIC SENSE. BOSNIA IS JUST ONE EXAMPLE OF THE KIND
OF 'OUT OF AREA' MISSION THAT NATO MIGHT UNDERTAKE IN
THE FUTURE. COLD WAR OR NO COLD WAR, THERE IS VALUE IN
COLLECTIVE DEFENSE.
TEXT: NOTHING COULD BE FARTHER FROM THE TRUTH, COUNTERS "THE NEW
YORK TIMES, WHICH WORRIES THAT EXPANSION WILL COST TOO MUCH, AND
ALIENATE RUSSIA MORE THAN SUPPORTERS REALIZE.
VOICE: NATO EXPANSION RECEIVED A STRONG ENDORSEMENT THIS WEEK
FROM THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE, BUT THE
MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE SENATE'S HANDLING OF
THIS ISSUE IS THE AMBIVALENCE SO MANY MEMBERS EXPRESS.
RARELY HAS SUCH AN IMPORTANT MATTER SEEMED HEADED FOR
APPROVAL WITH SO LITTLE ENTHUSIASM OR ATTENTION.... THE
UNITED STATES OUGHT NOT TO TAKE SUCH A FATEFUL STEP
WITHOUT A COMPELLING JUSTIFICATION AND FERVENT
CONVICTION.... SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT THE FINANCIAL COST
OF ENLARGEMENT REMAIN, EVEN AMONG SUPPORTERS OF
EXPANSION.... TO BRING THE NATO MILITARY ALLIANCE TO
RUSSIA'S DOORSTEP IS CLEARLY TO INVITE A RESUMPTION OF
CHILLED RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW AND EVEN A TURN AWAY FROM
DEMOCRACY IN RUSSIA.
TEXT: THERE IS A VERY DIFFERENT VIEW FROM "THE NEW YORK POST,"
WHICH TITLES ITS COMMENTARY "YES TO NATO EXPANSION."
VOICE: THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE HAS VOTED
OVERWHELMINGLY TO ADMIT THE CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY AND
POLAND TO FULL MEMBERSHIP IN ....[NATO]. IT'S A VERY
GOOD THING IT DID SO. THE ARGUMENTS FOR ... EXPANSION
HAVE TO DO WITH PROMOTING THE SPREAD OF DEMOCRACY AND
ESTABLISHING FIRMLY THAT 'THE WEST' IS NOW MORE AN IDEA
THAN A GEOGRAPHIC DESIGNATION. THE DEBATE ... HAS
CENTERED ON ITS COST -- SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE BILLION
AND TEN BILLION DOLLARS....... SOME OPPONENTS SAY THE
U-S SHOULDN'T BE SPENDING THAT KIND OF MONEY, WHICH
SEEMS SILLY IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT DEBATE OVER A
HIGHWAY BILL THAT WILL COST WELL IN EXCESS OF
200-BILLION DOLLARS. OTHERS ARE CONCERNED THAT
EXPANSION WILL ANGER RUSSIA AND GIVE ITS IRREDENTIST
FORCES AMMUNITION FOR THEIR EFFORTS TO REINVENT A
RUSSIAN EMPIRE. THAT'S NOT A TRIVIAL CONCERN, BUT THIS
COUNTRY DOES NOT BELIEVE IN 'ZONES OF INFLUENCE,'
PARTICULARLY WHEN MOSCOW IS CLAIMING ONE OF THE ZONES.
TEXT: COMING DOWN ON THE SIDE OF NOT EXPANDING NATO IS "THE
CHICAGO TRIBUNE" WHICH MAKES THESE POINTS.
VOICE: SINCE IT IS THEIR SONS AND DAUGHTERS, HUSBANDS AND WIVES
WHO WILL PUT THEIR LIVES ON THE LINE, IT WOULD BEHOOVE
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO GIVE THIS ISSUE THE MOST CAREFUL
THOUGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED.
INDEED, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION AND ITS SUPPORTERS IN
THE EXPANSION EFFORT ALSO MAY NOT HAVE THOUGHT AS
CAREFULLY ABOUT IT AS THEY MIGHT, BECAUSE EXPANDING NATO
COULD HAVE THE IRONIC RESULT OF MAKING EUROPE, IN THE
END, LESS SECURE THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD BE.
AMERICANS WHO SUPPOSED THAT THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET
UNION AND THE END OF THE COLD WAR MEANT THAT THE U-S
COULD FINALLY LAY DOWN THE BURDEN OF DEFENDING EUROPE
MAY BE SURPRISED TO LEARN THAT THAT IS NOT SO -- AT
LEAST NOT IN THE VIEW OF MANY IN THE FOREIGN POLICY
PRIESTHOOD (ESTABLISHMENT). /// OPT /// ..... VACLAV
HAVEL, PRESIDENT OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC, SUMMED IT UP AS
A MATTER OF KEEPING THE EUROPEANS FROM FALLING INTO A
'WAR OF ALL AGAINST ALL,' OF BECOMING EX-YUGOSLAVIA ON A
CONTINENTAL SCALE. THAT IS NOT AN IGNOBLE THING TO DO.
THE QUESTION IS: WHY IS IT THE JOB OF THE UNITED STATES,
ANY MORE THAN IT IS AMERICA'S JOB TO KEEP HUTUS AND
TUTSIS FROM EACH OTHER'S THROATS IN RWANDA OR TO
SEPARATE ANTAGONISTS IN ANY OF THE SEVERAL DOZEN OTHER
PLACES IN THE WORLD WHERE THEY INSIST ON KILLING EACH
OTHER? /// END OPT /// ..... LEAVING RUSSIA ASIDE, THE
QUESTION REMAINS: IS IT WISE FOR THE U-S TO MAKE A
COMMITMENT SO GRAVE AS THAT IMPLICIT IN EXPANDING NATO?
IT IS NOT, AND FOR AN IRONIC REASON: THE MORE SUCH
PROMISES AMERICA MAKES, THE LESS SERIOUSLY, ULTIMATELY,
THEY WILL BE TAKEN, BY THOSE TO WHOM THEY ARE MADE AND
THOSE WHO MIGHT BE TEMPTED TO TEST THEM. .....
PHILIPPE MOREAU DEFARGES, AN EXPERT WITH THE FRENCH
INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, SUMS UP THIS IRONY
WITH A FRENCH PROVERB ... 'HE WHO SEEKS TO KISS
EVERYONE, KISSES BADLY.'
TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE LEAVE THIS DEBATE ON THE EXPANSION OF
NATO WHICH IS SURE TO CONTINUE UNTIL, AND EVEN,
POSSIBLY, BEYOND THE SENATE'S EXPECTED VOTE ON THE ISSUE
LATER THIS MONTH.
NEB/ANG/KL
05-Mar-98 1:03 PM EST (1803 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.