23 February 1998

DOD ENDORSES NATO ESTIMATE OF $1.5 BILLION FOR ENLARGEMENT

(U.S. share expected to remain around 25 percent) (820)

By Jacquelyn S. Porth

USIA Security Affairs Correspondent



Washington -- The Defense Department sent a report to Congress
February 23 which endorses an earlier NATO report estimating the
direct costs of adding three new members to the alliance at $1.5
billion ($1,500 million) from 1998 to 2008.


The Pentagon's "Report to the Congress on the Military Requirements
and Costs of NATO Englargement" concludes that the alliance's analysis
of enlargement requirements -- to include the Czech Republic, Hungary
and Poland -- is "militarily sound," reliable and reflects "a range of
reasonable contingencies."


President Clinton sent the accession protocols for the proposed three
new members to the Senate on February 11. Secretary of Defense William
Cohen, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Joint Chiefs of Staff
Chairman Henry Shelton will testify before the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee February 24 about the report and other aspects of
enlargement. The U.S. share of common-funded NATO enlargement costs is
estimated to be about 25 percent of the total, or about $400 million
spread out over a decade.


U.S. costs for enlarging the alliance are not expected to be evenly
spread over the 10 year period. In fact, about 20 percent of the $400
million -- or $84 million -- is expected to be incurred by 2002. The
report notes that the U.S. portion of NATO's common-funded enlargement
costs is projected to peak around 2005.


For Fiscal Year 1999, the Pentagon expects to accommodate those
expenditures within its planned $257,300 million budget. In fiscal
years 2000-2001, however, it will have to ask Congress for an
additional $5 to 12 million over current budget projections. By Fiscal
Year 2002, the Pentagon projects having to ask Congress for $32
million.


The report also notes that the Clinton administration's FY '99 request
for $135 million for Warsaw Initiative activities is indicative of
planned future requests. Larger requests, due to NATO enlargement, are
not expected.


This bilateral assistance helps Central and Eastern European nations
which aspire to be NATO members to acquire equipment and refine
procedures and doctrine enabling them to be more interoperable with
alliance members. Much of it is spent on the "Partnership for Peace"
program. It also funds International Military Education and Training,
Foreign Military Financing, Foreign Military Sales and Excess Defense
Articles which are not considered directly tied to NATO enlargement
costs.


The Pentagon's latest report contrasts with one in February 1997 which
indicated that NATO common-funded costs might be as high as $4.9
billion ($4,900 million) to $6.2 billion ($6,200 million). But that
analysis was prepared at a time when it was thought that there might
be four rather than three new members. The "Report to the Congress on
the Enlargement of NATO: Rationale, Benefits, Costs and Implications"
also underestimated the condition of Polish, Czech and Hungarian
infrastructure.


New and better analysis was made possible by the Defense Planning
Questionnaires which alliance invitees completed in October 1997. NATO
has analyzed the responses and given the new prospective members a set
of Target Force Goals. The report states that the invitees are now
negotiating with NATO "on the content of the final Force Goals which
will be released in late Spring 1998."


Most of the spending associated with enlargement between 1998 and 2008
will be used to extend NATO's Command and Control network to new
member countries so as to allow basic communications interoperability.
Funds also will be used to integrate new members into NATO's
Integrated Air Defense System, covering the costs for air defense
radar systems for Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic.


Other anticipated expenditures include updating some air and maritime
reception facilities and paying for some military training and
exercising costs such as transporting the forces of new members to
deployment sites or making modest improvements in training facilities.


The report also notes that:



-- The U.S. share of the NATO Security Investment Program for FY '99
is $196 million.
-- The U.S. share of NATO's Military Budget for FY' 99 is $227
million.


-- The U.S. share for NATO's Civil Budget for FY '99 is $46 million.



The Defense Department's endorsement of NATO's report contains the
qualification that the alliance cost estimate "is subject to normal
uncertainties associated with" the ongoing planning process "which
could lead to changes in the actual costs of enlargement."


The report also points out that there will likely be "some variation
in the amount of enlargement costs that will be accommodated within
currently planned budgets, depending on such factors as how NATO
decides to handle increased contributions by Spain, the new members,
and possibly France to the common-funded budgets; whether NATO's
current project priorities and implementation schedules remain valid;
and whether NATO elects to seek more resources overall for the
common-funded budgets."