21 October 1997
(Ratification seems likely among all 16 members, analysts say) (870) By Rick Marshall USIA Staff Writer Alpbach, Austria -- Three days of free-wheeling debate on trans-Atlantic security issues among scholars, government officials, and business and labor leaders from the United States, Canada and Europe revealed overwhelming support for the decision of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to add Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic as members. This was substantiated by polling data collected by the U.S. Information Agency presented by Ann Pincus, USIA's director of research. Pincus told the New Atlantic Initiative/European Forum Alpbach conference here October 18 that the decision to accept the three new members "has been broadly accepted" by European publics. Although not a burning issue with the general public in most NATO countries -- Poland, where interest in membership is very high, being the most notable exception -- USIA's data indicated significantly higher support for the move among the better-educated population in each of the 13 countries for which it has recent data. Among this latter group, according to the figures Pincus released, support for NATO enlargement is 67 percent in Britain, 63 in France, 60 in Germany, 67 in Italy, 71 in Spain, 58 in Turkey, 80 in the Czech Republic, 83 in Hungary, 72 in Bulgaria, 93 in Romania, 61 in Slovakia, and 70 in Slovenia. USIA does not do polling in the United States, while the figures for Poland are not yet available. Similarly, papers presented at the conference suggest that each of NATO's 16 nations will ratify the changes to the Washington Treaty needed to admit the new members. For example, Pierre Hassner, director of research at Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales in France's Foundation Nationale des Science Politiques, noted that both the Socialists and Gaullists support NATO enlargement. "Nobody is really campaigning against it," he commented. A similar view was presented by Holland's Peter Volten of the University of Groninger, who noted that "NATO has always enjoyed the support of roughly 70-75 percent of the Dutch population." Nursin Guney, a professor of political science at Turkey's Marmara University, noted that while former prime minister Tansu Ciller had once threatened to veto NATO enlargement if Turkey were not offered membership in the European Union. Such threats have essentially disappeared, however, as both President Suleyman Demirel and the military came out in support of enlargement after the Madrid Summit this July, she said. Added University of Greece professor Kostas Yfantis, "ratification is ensured." Greece believes enlargement "will contribute to the consolidation of a new cooperative security environment in Europe." Michael Zantovsky, a member of the Czech Senate and former ambassador to the United States, noted that support for NATO is rising "fast," and he predicted there "will be a comfortable political majority ... for the enlargement." His view was reinforced by Ivan Gabal, former head of President Vaclav Havel's department of political analysis. There are "good grounds to expect ratification," he said, especially if Havel is re-elected in the January 1998 presidential elections, as is expected. While both men noted the historic lack of enthusiasm in the Czech Republic for military matters, Gabal observed that this is beginning to change in light of the Czech Battalion's efforts in Bosnia and Havel's personal involvement. "Since the beginning of 1997, the Czech government has given NATO membership and national defense issues top priority in all legislative, administrative and budgetary aspects," Gabal added. In the general discussion that followed, scholars and officials from Spain, Germany, Norway, Hungary and the United Kingdom gave positive assessments of the prospects for ratification in their countries. A session on the prospects of U.S. Senate ratification offered similar hope, although a number of the speakers warned the Europeans about congressional concerns about diverting NATO from its collective defense mission. Others pointed to the dangers that European members might prove unwilling to pay their fair share of the enlargement costs. What the exact costs of adding the three new members and what the Europeans' fair share should be, however, were far from clear to anyone, as previous estimates have varied considerably. NATO is expected to issue a study on enlargement costs in late November or early December. Whether it will recommend how the related expenses are shared among the Allies is not yet clear. Questions about NATO's policy toward Bosnia and the possibility of other Eastern European nations' eventually joining were also discussed at length during the conference, with opinions varying significantly among the participants. Briefly addressing the Bosnian question, Anthony Lake, the national security advisor to President Clinton during his first term, expressed disapproval of "open-ended commitments," but said that he expected some kind of U.S. follow-on force would remain in Bosnia after next summer. Both Lake and Congressman Gerald Solomon (Republican, New York) expressed support for eventual Baltic membership in NATO. "The question is timing," Lake said. As for Solomon, who has just been named the chairman of the House NATO Observer Group, he said that he would like to see the Baltics enter the Alliance in the second round. Formal discussions on future membership are scheduled for April 1999, NATO's 50th anniversary.