Wednesday December 4, 1996 Analysts overseas, discussing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) gathering in Lisbon Dec. 2-3, held that the summit was shadowed by the unresolved dispute with Russia over NATO enlargement and which organization should be the primary agent for European security, the Atlantic Alliance or Russia's candidate, the OSCE. While noting that some European leaders--most forcefully French President Chirac--lobbied for meeting Russia's demands on OSCE by "reinforcing" its military aspects, it was clear to most observers that the U.S.' pro- NATO view had carried the day. They judged that NATO, not the OSCE, will remain the principal "pillar" of European security and will proceed with plans to accept some former Warsaw Pact allies as members. Polish TV's Channel 1 determined, "Russia didn't manage to succeed in weakening the NATO position in the European security system." The perception that Moscow's arguments in favor of the OSCE were rebuffed in Lisbon--and with it Russia's bid for a place of honor it cannot achieve through NATO--left Russian media convinced that, in the words of Moscow's reformist Izvestia, Russia was "totally isolated" at the meeting. This development prompted reformist Segodnya of Moscow to urge a one-on-one meeting between Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin (their absence at the OSCE was widely deplored) as the only venue that could solve the impasse over NATO and "prevent a durable 'cold peace' in Europe." Segodnya's proposal was in line with current assessments in the Moscow press that the Kremlin will not soften its anti-enlargement stance, as many had hoped. Referring to Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin's "categorical 'nyet'" in Lisbon, business-oriented Kommersant Daily of Moscow stressed, "The Foreign Ministry, dead set against enlargement, has apparently prevailed. In fact, what Chernomyrdin has brought to Lisbon is exactly what Yeltsin brought to Budapest two years ago, when he proposed that the European security system be reformed, with the OSCE, not NATO, as its linchpin." Given the Russian position, centrist, top- circulation Corriere della Sera of Milan held that Vice President Gore "said what he had to say, i.e. that NATO does not intend to threaten anybody, least of all Russia, but that it neither intends to be told by others what it can or cannot do." Most editorialists were of the opinion that the OSCE--which they have through the years criticized as "a diplomatic monster" paralyzed by the need for consensus among its 54 members--cannot serve as the key security organization from Vancouver to Vladivostok. "For this purpose we continue to need NATO," said right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine, one of many publications on NATO's side. Vienna's independent Die Presse declared, "One should let the cobbler OSCE stick to its last. That is: to be a platform of discussion" for Russia, the CIS and the rest of Europe. Journalists, however, agreed with Lisbon's center-left Publico that the summit was a "success" in other areas. They applauded the nod to Russia's request to modify the treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), hoping--yet again--that this concession would "soften" Moscow's rejection of NATO enlargement. Writers welcomed the decision to create a position charged with monitoring freedom of the press in the OSCE member states. This survey is based on 87 reports from 15 countries, Nov. 26-Dec. 4. EDITOR: Mildred Sola Neely EUROPE PORTUGAL: "A Success, Though Difficult To Measure" Center-left Publico (12/3) said in a piece by international editor Teresa de Sousa, "The Lisbon summit was a success but one that is difficult to measure in terms of the infernal monotonous ritual of official speeches or by a quick read of the two summit documents: 'Our Common Security' and the 'Lisbon Declaration.'... Nevertheless, the summit was a step, however short, on the road to consolidating a new climate of confidence that opens the doors to the two big questions on which post-Cold War European security hinges: NATO and EU enlargement.... Perhaps the United States left for its European allies the mission of coming up with a new conceptual framework for European security as outlined in the 'Llisbon Declaration,' but it contains some of Washington's calls for pragmatism, but it also addresses some of Russia's concerns about strengthening the OSCE as one of the most important structures in a new model for European security." "Gore's Minimalism" Another item in center-left Publico (12/3) concluded under the headline above, "NATO enlargement and an OSCE which is a mere regional forum for political discussion...is the U.S. perspective as presented by Vice President Al Gore yesterday; views which are the total opposite of those defended by the Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin at the Lisbon summit.... Gore tried to placate Moscow's fears of Alliance enlargement with a conciliatory tone.... In U.S. eyes, the advantages of their security model are clear, and would be based on close relations with Russia and the OSCE.... As is usual with OSCE summits, Al Gore arrived, spoke, met with Chernomyrdin, fulfilled the protocolary ceremonies called for by good manners, and left." "All Eyes On Russia" Center-left Publico (12/2) remarked in a piece by international editor Teresa de Sousa, "Certainty prevails among the delegations that the Lisbon OSCE summit won't be a repeat of the Budapest failure two years ago...because Russia comes ready to cooperate.... The fundamental question for the summit is to find a way to work with Russia so as to clear the road for NATO expansion. The opinion of Western diplomats is that Russia has now accepted that the OSCE will never be the dominant European security organization." "Continental Rift" Under the headline above, business weekly Valor (11/29) noted, "The absence of the U.S. president at the OSCE summit, which his Old World counterparts had hoped would draw major attention, is interpreted as another demonstration of the North American administration's distancing itself from Europe.... Some analysts say that the United States wants to 'lower the profile' of the summit by substituting Al Gore for Clinton.... This at a time when relations between Portugal and the United States are already uneasy. Portuguese foreign office circles have been heard to say, 'With friends like that, who needs enemies?'... The growing distance between the two capitals is clear. Portugal has not been happy with the Democratic administration's support for Indonesia (Clinton visited Jakarta four times in his first four years). Recently the president refused to see Timorese resistance leader and 1996 Nobel Peace Prize winner Ramos-Horta. As if that weren't enough, Washington did not support Portugal's bid for a seat as a permanent member of the UN Security Council." GERMANY: "We Need NATO For Europe's Security" Werner Adam commented in a front-page editorial in right- of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (12/4), "In Lisbon, a new confrontation regarding NATO's enlargement to the East did not take place. But Moscow not only continues to stick to its opposition to the acceptance of former Warsaw Pact states in the Western Alliance. It is even questioning the value and the significance of NATO in general.... The United States rightfully pointed out that it is not possible to make unlimited concessions to the Russians without putting at risk the transatlantic Alliance at the end.... Nothing can be said against an OSCE as a well-approved instrument of regional crisis management, but it cannot turn into the foundation of a European security system. For this purpose we continue to need NATO." "OSCE's Merits" Kurt Kister judged in an editorial in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (12/4), "It would be a futile effort to turn the OSCE into an alliance for collective security in Europe.... In the framework of the OSCE, states like Armenia and Azerbaijan talk to each other, while their soldiers usually fire at each other. Europe's nations and even more the countries that border on Europe need such institutions. It has its merits and makes sense even though it will not turn into a supreme NATO." "OSCE's Dilemma" Berlin's centrist Der Tagesspiegel concluded (12/4), "The OSCE (meeting)...joins the long history of painstaking attempts at eliminating sources of conflict in Europe and make peaceful cooperation the decisive guideline. This summit did not bring the 54 participating countries any closer to this aim. This and President Clinton's demonstrative absence disclose the real dilemma of the OSCE: It is wedged between the U.S. refusal to give this organization an efficient role in...maintaining peace in Europe, and the inability of the European Union to impress Washington and Moscow with a common will. This is why it is consistent to say that a new division of Europe has not been rejected yet." "CFE To Get Revised In Hopes Of Russia's Nod On NATO" Werner Adam commented in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (12/3), "What the West rejected at the beginning as unacceptable has now, thanks to their harping insistence, been conceded to the Russians: The treaty on conventional forces is to be revised. This concessions is understandable, because the original agreement was negotiated between NATO and the Warsaw Pact and was concluded before the disintegration of the Soviet Union.... Western concessions can also be explained because such a step promises a softening of Russia's opposition to NATO's enlargement to the East. However, what Premier Chernomyrdin had to say in Lisbon does not second this view. Russia continues to describe NATO as a danger." "How Do Russians Spell Security?" Right-of-center Dresdner Neueste Nachrichten (12/3) opined: "'Security in Europe' is in Russian still spelled differently than in German, French or English. At the OSCE summit..the 54 participating countries will not find a common language either. The trenches are too deep between Russia and Belarus on the one side, and the NATO partners on the other. However, Russia's wish to turn the OSCE into a kind of umbrella organization for NATO and the WEU in where Moscow is an equal partner to Washington, London, Paris and Brussels, is understandably not meeting with too much support. The conflict in the Balkans shows the distribution of roles: The OSCE controls the elections in Bosnia; NATO is responsible for establishing the necessary order. The Western security concept bases its hopes on NATO as a military but also as a political factor of stability in Europe. And the wish of Eastern and Central European nations to join the Alliance shows that this approach is accepted." "Lisbon's Dream Factory" Right-of-center Berliner Morgenpost held (12/3), "Russia wants to deploy more forces and tanks along its so-called flank regions. What will the neighbors of these flanks think of it? The fact that Western circles seem to like these Russian wishes, because they hope that Moscow could modify its unyieldingness regarding NATO's enlargement to the East, could quickly turn out to be a product of the dream factory in Lisbon." "Moscow Will Again Lobby For OSCE Over NATO" Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine's editorial (12/2) held, "If there is anything that Russian politicians fully agree on against the West, it is the rejection of a NATO enlargement to the East. And because in the Atlantic Alliance the tendency toward enlargement is also restricted, the Moscow government considered it appropriate to once again pull all the stops to the plans on the acceptance of former Communist bloc states into the Western military Alliance immediately before today's OSCE summit meeting. "Russia will not even tolerate a mention of this subject in the OSCE documents that are to be passed. Instead, we can expect it to once again voice with warning eagerness its old plan of making the OSCE the basis and roof of a common European security system. As this enterprise obviously aims at a weakening of NATO, Moscow will meet with a rebuff in Lisbon just as it did at the last OSCE summit in Budapest. However, the Western defense is less united. Some countries do not lack the readiness to increasingly accomodate the Russians." "Small Steps Instead Of Big Breakthroughs" Gerd-Eckard Zehm wrote in right-of-center Bonner Rundschau (11/26), "The main actors in the political arena, Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin, will not be present at the summit, but even without them, the OSCE summit is likely to become an impressive meeting.... Nevertheless, leading OSCE diplomats do not expect a 'moving' event. Instead of great breakthroughs, there will be minor steps that are directed to greater confidence- building, conflict prevention and a strengthening of the efficiency of the OSCE.... "One of the problems, the German delegation with Chancellor Kohl at the top wants to address at the summit is, in addition to security policy subjects, the human dimension. According to the Bonn government, the OSCE is to set new standards that will ostracize the practice of ethnic displacements and will lay down the right of refugees to return to their homes. In addition, the Bonn government will suggest setting up the office of a media commissioner in addition to the office of a high commissioner for minorities which already exists. This media commissioner is to watch the freedom of the press in the various OSCE member states. He is also supposed to watch the latest developments in the media landscape and--if necessary-- draft certain rules for the treatment of the new media." RUSSIA: "Moscow Isolated In Lisbon" Under this headline, reformist Izvestia (12/4) ran a comment by Vladimir Mikheyev: "Assuming that Western powers, considering themselves the victors in the Cold War, had in mind to show Russia how totally isolated it was, they seem to have achieved their aim in Lisbon. The OSCE summit, effectively and forcefully, rejected the Moscow view that NATO enlargement to the East will split Europe again. The West must be certain that Moscow will simply have to admit that it cannot stop the 'Orient Express.' In fact, Russia has been left no choice, which perhaps explains why there was no answer to Moscow suggesting, rather unexpectedly, that it might join NATO's political organization.... Overall, the Lisbon meeting was marked by a divergence rather than a coincidence of views. NATO's 'Orient Express,' not yet on an official schedule, has already cut Europe into two unequal parts, leaving Russia less than a proud loner, Belarus its sole ally." "Agreement On CFE Is Chief Accomplishment" Fyodor Lukyanov stated on page one of reformist Segodnya (12/4): "Agreement on renewing the CFE talks in Vienna, experts say, is the main practical result of the Lisbon summit." "Only Moscow-Washington Compromise Can Avert Cold Peace" Reformist Segodnya (12/4) published this comment by Pavel Felgenhauer: "Russian foreign policy became clearer, at least temporarily, after Premier Chernomyrdin, addressing the Lisbon summit, strongly opposed NATO expansion eastward.... Obviously, the advocates of a 'resist-and- defy' policy in the (Moscow) corridors of power have only gained, as their 'firmness' has at last begun to pay off, forcing the West into concessions.... Moscow, apparently, will now insist that NATO plans be postponed until a CFE accord is reached in Vienna and the Alliance signs a legally binding treaty, not a 'charter,' with Russia.... Support from France and Germany is only temporary and opportunistic. They are not going to block NATO expansion forever. Only compromise with Washington can prevent a durable 'cold peace' in Europe. With their ministers stuck in an impasse, only President Yeltsin and President Clinton can save mankind by meeting one on one, as their predecessors Gorbachev and Reagan did before them." "Gore Feels Alone?" Tatyana Malkina in Lisbon filed on page one of reformist Segodnya (12/3): "Chernomyrdin made a forceful presentation, aggressively confirming Russia's unshakable stand on NATO expansion.... By contrast, Gore, who spoke soon after 'friend Viktor,' was pointedly diplomatic and amicable and even expressed the hope that the OSCE might help NATO and Russia strike common ground, to everybody's delight. It is easy to guess who is luckier in the Portuguese capital: The U.S. vice president must feel alone. Practically every speech included a set of obligatory elements, with roughly a third of all speakers referring to the OSCE spreading across boundless expanse and everyone mentioning a new European security architecture and a wider sphere of competence and a greater role for the OSCE.... The Russian delegation seems to be about to feel as if it might carry the day. Judging by the atmosphere at the summit, Lebed's touching dream may finally come true, as NATO's 'regular guys' will agree to change the structure, name and goals of their organization, and Russia, heaving a sigh of relief, will join it, along with the rest of the OSCE." "Chernomyrdin Echoed Yeltsin's Words In Budapest" Georgy Bovt said in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (12/3): "Suggestions that Moscow might soften its stand, which most OSCE countries find inflexible and hopeless, have not come true.... The Foreign Ministry, dead set against (NATO) enlargement, has apparently prevailed. In fact, what Chernomyrdin has brought to Lisbon is exactly what Yeltsin brought to Budapest two years ago, when he proposed that the European security system be reformed, with the OSCE, not NATO, as its linchpin.... So far, Russia has had only one ally, Alexander Lukashenko, himself under fire for his authoritarian ways. Under the circumstances, Moscow, facing possible isolation, would be wise to stay away from its Belarus friend so as not to make things worse for itself.... The final declaration, evidently, will not mention NATO where it comes to the free right of European nations to join military-political alliances. But avoiding mentioning problems does not make them any easier. Nor will it give the OSCE the efficiency Moscow has been urging." "Whither Europe?" Reformist, government Rossiyskiye Vesti (11/30) wrote editorially: "Faced with important security tasks, Europe can best resolve them through the OSCE, the only universal organization on the continent.... Russia believes that a new European security plan must provide for close cooperation among international organizations active in European politics. Those include the OSCE, the EU, the CE, NATO, the CIS, and others." "Real Chance To Continue Dialogue" Alexander Zditovetsky in Lisbon pointed out on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (11/30): "For Russia, (this meeting) is a real chance to continue a serious dialogue with Western partners on European security and, in particular, NATO expansion eastward.... The absence of Clinton and Yeltsin will detract somewhat from the summit.... Regarding the supersensitive issue of NATO expansion, Russia is helpless to stop it, due to its military-economic situation.... The West will not miss this extremely propitious moment: Russia was not so weak and vulnerable even in 1917." "OSCE Is Better Than Split Europe" Reformist, youth Komsomolskaya Pravda (11/30) published this by Yelena Ovcharenko: "Now is the time to think of how best to ensure European security in the next century. We are familiar with the Brussels option and find it unacceptable to Russia.... The Russian delegation is leaving for Lisbon, convinced that OSCE documents should not approve of NATO enlargement. The problems to be discussed, of course, are not confined to who beats whom or whether the 'Atlantists' will ever submit to the OSCE. A new Europe really needs new security.... With an abundance of European structures already in place, creating a new one is hard and expensive. Much would have to be built anew-- the OSCE does not even have a legal basis. All that, however, seems easier than going back to blocs and coalitions." BRITAIN: "Row Over NATO Mars Summit" Glasgow's centrist Herald (12/3) pointed out under the headline above: "Russia attacked NATO's plans for enlargement, sounding a jarring note as OSCE members met to try to build lasting peace in Europe for the 21st century.... The crises in Belarus and Serbia also detracted from the summit's intended harmony." "Is Russia An Inherent Threat To Rest Of Europe?" An editorial in the liberal Guardian (12/3) pointed out, "Hopes that the end of the Cold War would also mean the end of mystifying defense theology have not been sustained.... Just why the Russians should be partners in the global economy but antagonists in continental defense remains unclear. The various proposals for a new partnership between NATO and Russia should imply Russian membership at some future stage. If there is a good reason for this being ruled out, we are not being told.... What is left unsaid behind the new theology is the old conviction that Russia is an inherent threat to the rest of Europe." "Fears Over NATO Expansion" Glasgow's centrist Herald maintained (12/2): "It is important to remember that NATO enlargement, while theoretically a sound idea, must be approached with much caution. Membership is a guarantee of protection for former Warsaw Pact countries, but it includes obligations which these nations are unlikely to be able to honor for some time.... "The real danger is that rhetoric and posturing may upstage the conduct of business and lead to harder attitudes on all sides." "Avoiding New Row With Russia" According to the liberal Guardian (12/2): "Despite being determined to avoid anew row with Russia at today's European security summit, Western countries look likely to face trouble as Moscow grows increasingly jittery about an expanding NATO.... American Vice President Al Gore hopes that by tinkering with words and enhancing cooperation between NATO, the OSCE and the European Union, Russian concerns about NATO enlargement can be assuaged. "Most OSCE members are wary of Russia's proposal for a 'steering group' modelled on the UN Security Council. Washington explicitly rejects any link between the expansion of NATO and the development of OSCE.... However, some European countries think Washington is being too tough and there have been transatlantic disagreements in preliminary meetings in Vienna." FRANCE: "Paris's Difficulties In Promoting Its Vision Of OSCE" Alain Frachon remarked in left-of-center Le Monde (12/4): "Paris is facing difficulties in promoting its vision of the OSCE. Russia, on which it counted, seems to be more interested in an exclusive dialogue with Washington, hoping to gain the most in exchange for NATO's enlargement. The United States is hostile to a change of status for the OSCE which should, in its view, remain an informal forum.... Eastern Europe is counting on NATO, not on the OSCE, for its security. And the EU supports Paris, but without much enthusiasm." "NATO's Enlargement: Best To Insure Security, Stability" Jacques Malmassari observed in right-of-center France Soir (12/3): "The Alliance needs a facelift to adapt to a new Europe opening to the East.... Europe recognizes the need for a U.S. presence. This doesn't mean that it wants to subcontract its security to Washington forever.... NATO must go forward towards the East on two legs, one American, the other European. NATO's enlargement is not a gift from the West to Central Europe, nor is it a threat for the Russian people. It is today the surest way of insuring the stability and the security of the continent." "France In 'Renewed NATO' Would Help Russia" Readers of right-of-center Le Figaro saw this by Baudoin Bollaert i(12/3): "NATO's enlargement is still dividing Russia and the United States.... For the French president, a reinforcement of the OSCE is the only thing that can counterbalance NATO's enlargement.... Even if he didn't say it outright, Chirac believes that France's return to a 'renovated NATO Alliance' would help Russia in accepting NATO's enlargement." "A New Franco-American Disagreement" Left-of-center Liberation's Jacques Amalric opined (12/3): "The opposite positions of Chirac and Al Gore...are not surprising. It demonstrates once again that the United States wishes to continue with NATO under U.S. influence, while Chirac is asking, without much hope, for a Europeanization of its military organizations." "What Is OSCE's Purpose?" Baudoin Bollaert wrote in right-of-center Le Figaro (12/2): "The basic question is this: What is the purpose of the OSCE? The Russians would like it to be a super- organization that would include the Atlantic Alliance. The United States disagrees because it perceives Europe's security to be guaranteed by the `de-multiplication' (reduction) of NATO. In the middle, France is in favor of a stronger OSCE and a renewed NATO.... Paris feels that with a charter giving the OSCE more weight, NATO's enlargement would be easier to accept by Moscow." "Mission Impossible For European Security" Jacques Amalric observed in left-of-center Liberation under the headline above (12/2): "`The most important issue for the Russians,' confides a French diplomat, `is their relationship with the United States, which fascinates them. For them, the OSCE is an empty shell that can stay empty. All of their diplomatic efforts are concentrating on their future relations with NATO, and therefore, according to them, with Washington.' This state of mind sits well with the United States.... Meanwhile, without openly saying that NATO's enlargement is subordinate to its Europeanization, Paris admits that a tie-in exists." ITALY: "Defense, It Is Up To Europe" A commentary in leading financial Il Sole 24-Ore (12/4) maintained: "At the Lisbon OSCE summit an important awareness, especially among European leaders, has been enhanced: NATO expansion alone does not represent a new security architecture in an area stretching from Vancouver to Vladivostok and it will not be enlargement at any cost.... It is unlikely, given the uncertain leadership in the Kremlin, that Moscow will propose new ideas.... Rather, it is better that the Europeans, in particular Italy, France and Germany, transform their `Lisbon awareness' (a secure Europe with Russia) into a concrete proposal, perhaps endowing the OSCE with those operational means that allow it to become the main structure of a Euro-Atlantic defense system." "NATO Remains Pillar Of European Security" According to PDS (former Communist Party) organ L'Unita (12/4), "NATO remains the pillar of European security. And the OSCE, which the Europeans...would like to reinforce, does not have the requirements for being an alternative, first of all because the United States is not willing to give up its leadership by putting the security of the Old Continent in the hands of a `condominium'." "Thorniest Among Unresolved Issues: NATO Enlargement" According to centrist La Stampa in a dispatch from Lisbon (12/3): "The absence of the Russian and American presidents symbolized and summarized the thorniest among the unresolved issues, i.e. NATO expansion. No progress has been made in Lisbon and nobody, in fact, expected any. Chernomyrdin's speech was a tough one.... But Western leaders, who remembered Yeltsin's very tough speech in Budapest, where he had talked of `cold peace,' were satisfied with the portion of Chernomyrdin's sentence in which he admitted that Russia has no right to a veto. Therefore, things will proceed according to Washington's plans, even though everybody realizes that, this way, medium-range prospects for a new European security architecture will be more difficult and that, on the contrary, there may develop situations of instability and growing mutual diffidence. U.S. Vice President Gore concluded his speech by saying: Roads are created by walking on them. Which is good...when everybody is able to proceed, but is not so good when some can proceed and others are forced to go back." "Smiles And Gore's Message" Franco Venturini wrote from Lisbon in centrist, top- circulation Corriere della Sera (12/3): "The OSCE is going to conclude today amid smiles and handshakes a summit which the presences of Clinton and Yeltsin, as well as the controversial presences of Milosevic and Arafat, could have made stormy.... The message from Moscow was that Russia will not pose a veto on the choices made by others but that nobody can prevent it from defending its own vision of European security.... U.S. Vice President Gore said what he had to say, i.e. that NATO does not intend to threaten anybody, least of all Russia, but that it neither intends to be told by others what it can or cannot do; that NATO expansion will stabilize Europe and therefore it is in the interest of everyone." "OSCE Centered On NATO" PDS (former Communist Party) organ L'Unita said (12/3): "Even though NATO expansion is also not an official item for discussion...the summit is de facto centered around the future size of NATO." "'New Order' Won't Be Born In Lisbon" A commentary by Franco Venturini in centrist, top- circulation Corriere della Sera (12/2) was rather pessimistic about the prospects of the OSCE meeting in Lisbon: "Certainly the 'new order' sought by a Europe shaken by its escalating nationalisms and its ethnic cleansings...is not going to be born in Lisbon. Why? Because the convalescent Yeltsin and the skeptical Clinton will not be there. Because the 54-member OSCE is a diplomatic monster paralyzed by the rule of unanimity.... But, most of all, because...the dreams of those who seek the dividends of victory and those who refuse to pay the price of defeat are too different. The West, which has won the Cold War, says Clinton, cannot substitute the Iron Curtain with a curtain of indifference. It has to open towards the East, it has to extend its security system (NATO) towards the new European democracies which 1989 freed from the Soviet yoke.... "But then there is Russia.... It would not be wise to have the new European security born `against' the Kremlin and its nuclear arsenal. The project for a 'Pax Atlantica' then shows its limits: The most threatened areas, such as the Baltics and Ukraine, would remain excluded from the umbrella of an expanded NATO.... It is necessary to find a compromise with Moscow which will not humiliate Russia, will not exacerbate its resurging nationalism, will not make the price of defeat too great." "NATO-Russia Thorn At OSCE Summit" Aldo Rizzo concluded in centrist La Stampa (12/2): "The key item in Lisbon is the one which does not appear on the official agenda, i.e. NATO expansion and the seesawing, but overall negative, reaction in Moscow.... Between Moscow and Washington, the Europeans allies say neither 'yes' nor 'no.'... The problem will not be resolved in Lisbon, where, however, there will be a useful discussion." AUSTRIA: "Good And Bad News From Lisbon" Independent, mass-circulation Kurier's commentator Otmar Lahodynsky regretted (12/3) that the OSCE failed to answer the basic question of how a European security model for the 21st century ought to look like, mainly because of diverging opinions: "Russia wants to make the OSCE a bastion confronting NATO, the United States consider it a useful forum of discussion and democracy, and the European Union dreams of a European security network with a stronger OSCE." But Lahodynsky also traced "positive signals from Lisbon." He mentioned first signs of a rapprochement on CFE and a few reforms in the human rights sector: ,"Another important task of the OSCE will be the freedom of the media, which is oppressed in many European countries such as Belarus, but also Serbia, Croatia and Turkey.... Despite all its shortcomings, the OSCE remains an important pillar of the European security architecture, but not the only one." "Cobbler OSCE, Stick To Your Last!" Andreas Schwarz wrote in independent Die Presse (12/3) "After Lisbon, it is a fact that the OSCE, which has its roots in the East-West conflict, is unsuitable as the foundation of a security architecture. The principle of unanimity and the hardly successful conflict management don't allow this illusion.... One should let the cobbler OSCE stick to its last. That is: to be a platform of discussion, sometimes constructive, maybe even epochal. But the organization will certainly never be a security architecture for Europe." BELGIUM: "Russia Speaks Threatening Language Against West" Foreign affairs writer Frank Schloemer observed in independent De Morgen under the headline above (12/3): "NATO headquarters in Evere is following with Argus eyes the OSCE summit...where a Russian threat has concentrated black clouds over the meeting.... If necessary, the Russians will demand a revision--a unilateral termination in the worst case--of the international disarmament agreements and stated that they might seek 'new military allies' if NATO were to expand after all.... The Kremlin is mad and using terms like 'you are marching in our direction,' and is convinced that its own security is threatened. France and Germany have shown understanding for the Russians' fear but that is much less the case for the United States and, above all, the would-be members from Central and Eastern Europe.... "Yet, the 54 OSCE members have made a small step in the direction of the Russians. They appear to be willing to discuss the 1990 CFE Treaty on conventional weapons again.... (This treaty) might be adapted and expanded." HUNGARY: "Chirac Sides With The Russians" Readers of influential, liberal Magyar Hirlap (12/4) saw this piece by Janos T. Barabas, "OSCE's Lisbon summit ended with a significant success: An agreement was reached that the treaty on the limitation of conventional weapons would be re-negotiated. Thereby a long-time Russian demand has been fulfilled, which obviously has contributed to the fact that Moscow showed a less firm opposition to NATO's enlargement than had been expected. However, it is unlikely that the Russians would ever give their blessings to their former allies' membership in NATO. Jacques Chirac, who started a tough battle with the Americans on NATO's new system of command, has, in fact, taken the Russians' side. By taking the position that OSCE should be strengthened in such a way that would give some sort of military function to the organization, he has, in fact, provided new arguments for those opposed to NATO's enlargement. It is to be regretted, even if his principal goal was to achieve a better bargaining position for himself in the fight for NATO's command posts." "Inopportune Timing Of OSCE Meeting" Influential, liberal Magyar Hirlap stressed (12/2), "With the deadline for the enlargement of NATO approaching, the disagreements over the process are getting more and more attention, as well. The OSCE meeting is being held at a very inopportune time, since NATO foreign ministers will convene only a few days later to discuss the major issues regarding the future of the Alliance. The OSCE is facing a difficult task: It will have to ease the concerns of states left out from the enlargement process but it is hard to see yet how this would be possible. "Moscow's policy towards OSCE is best characterized by being contradictory. On the one hand Moscow wants to make the OSCE the central pillar of the new European security architecture; on the other hand it often blocks attempts to strengthen the influence and scope of authority of the organization. The reason for this is of course that most of the conflicts in the settling of which OSCE could play a role break out in Russian spheres of interest." THE NETHERLANDS: "Who Would Want A Russian Europe?" Centrist Algemeen Dagblad's editorial declared (12/3), "Since the end of the Cold War, the European countries, together with the United States and Canada, have been looking for more security and cooperation on the Old Continent. The current OSCE meeting in Lisbon is only a stop along the way to that goal which is long not in sight. The OSCE might have had more influence, but its capacity to make decisions still suffers from its size. Only if there is agreement among all the 54 members can a decision be taken. This principle has created a diplomatic monster which is too ponderous to be effective. In addition to this, the OSCE members have different views on the future.... For example Russia, which unlike the United States and Europe, would like to see the OSCE become the main security institution in Europe.... OSCE, Russian style, would push NATO onto second place.... But who would want a Russian Europe?" "OSCE At An Impasse" Influential NRC Handelsblad (12/2) judged, "The OSCE is back to where it started: A company of members who disagree with one another--the OSCE is at an impasse." POLAND: "Russia Didn't Weaken NATO's Position" Polish TV's Channel 1 aired this on its main news program, "Wiadomosci" (12/3), "In Lisbon at the close of the summit, the leaders of 54 countries accepted the declaration about the model of security in Europe in the 21st century.... Russia didn't manage to succeed in weakening the NATO position in the European security system." "A Useful Forum For Discussion" Polish TV Channel 2's main news program, "Panorama" (12/3) suggested in a piece by Jacek Biernacki, "The Russian proposal to make the OSCE the pillar of European security didn't get through in Lisbon. Quo vadis OSCE? After the Lisbon summit, there isn't a clear answer for that question. One thing is obvious, however, to transform the OSCE into an efficient system of peacekeeping in Europe is almost impossible. That is why we should leave the concerns about peace within structures already proved correct, like NATO, and let OSCE be what it is now--a useful forum for discussion." "Gore's Short Answer To Chernomyrdin's 'Nyet'" Polish TV Channel 1's main news broadcast, "Wiadomosci," (12/2) said, "Five thousand people listened in Lisbon once again to Russia's categorical 'nyet' to the plans for Polish membership in NATO.... The American answer was short: Al Gore, the vice-president: 'NATO is a defense treaty and there is no reason that any country should be afraid of its enlargement.'" "OSCE Cannot Usurp NATO's Place" Radio RMF FM's Brussels correspondent Katarzyna Borkino- Szynanska remarked (12/2), "It is unacceptable in Brussels that OSCE could take over the NATO position. NATO proved its efficiency, has won the Cold War without a shot, and is conducting its policy in Bosnia. OSCE is barely effective and is not able to work out any consensus." "Moscow Wants Bilateral Deal With NATO" Polish Television Channel 1's "Wiadomosci" main news program (12/1) aired this piece on the Lisbon summit from Russian correspondent Witold Laskowski: "Some of Moscow's analysts consider that by toughening its attitude towards NATO enlargement, the Kremlin wants only to gain more concessions from Western countries. In truth, Moscow is not able to fulfill its threats, because of economic reasons. Moscow wants only to bring about the signing of a bilateral agreement with NATO before the Central European countries become members." "Chernomyrdin: Steadfast Objection To NATO Enlargement" Bartosz Weglarczyk maintained in center-left Gazeta Wyborcza (12/2), "Russia wants the OSCE to take the responsibility for stability in Europe. Among other things, Russia wants the system of security in Europe to comprise not only geographic Europe, but also the whole area of the OSCE. It means that, for instance, the Asian countries of the former Soviet Union, whose foreign policy in the face of Europe is completely subordinated to Russia, would also have their say on the issue of NATO enlargement." SPAIN: "A Building Without Russia" An editorial in liberal El Pais said under the headline above (12/4), "The differences verbally expressed by the Russian delegation at the Lisbon OSCE summit illustrate the major problem that Europe must solve: Putting Russia into the security framework that is being developed.... The West knows what it does not want to do with Russia-- letting it join NATO or the EU--but (the West) does not appear to have a constructive solution. Russia could contribute to it by behaving in a more positive way...but its insistence on watering down the summit's criticism of Belgrade's lack of democracy is not a hopeful sign. However, there are signs that Moscow has already accepted the idea of NATO expansion and that what it now seeks is to not be isolated. "The OSCE deserves to be considered not only as a forum for debate...but also because it offers the opportunity for bilateral meetings to all of its members. Although it has looked differently on occasion...it has a remarkable political ability to prevent fraud and abuse from becoming legal." "OSCE: Much Ado About Very Little" Under the headline above, independent El Mundo (12/3) said in an editorial: "The United States and Russia have not come any closer regarding a security framework for Europe.... Gore's kind words to Chernormyrdin are nothing but reflections of good intentions." "Post-Cold War European Security Will Not Emerge In Lisbon" In the editorial view of liberal El Pais (12/2), "The post- Cold War European security will not emerge out of the OSCE summit in Lisbon. While NATO is preparing to expand to the East, the...countries...meeting in Lisbon appear to aspire only to appease the fears of an increasingly weakened and untrusting Russia. The absence of Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin in addition to the difficulties in reaching consensus on the final document herald a summit of 'transition,' a mild diplomatic adjective for 'void of content.' "Russia's internal weakness, its isolation from old Warsaw Pact allies and even its rivalry with other former Soviet republics, make this summit an unbalanced fight in which the West has no special interest in putting Russia against the ropes. Moscow's wish to form a kind of European security council...also has little opportunity to prosper." SWEDEN: "What Is Really OSCE's Purpose?" An editorial in liberal Dagens Nyheter (12/3) held, "Today's problem in Europe is not the lack of security organizations. On this continent there are more organizations than tasks, and the OSCE is one example of this surplus.... Its shortcomings are obvious and its only advantage, which in itself is not unimportant, is the fact that Russia is included in cooperation on equal footing with EU and NATO members.... Many of OSCE's problems would be easy to take care of. Procedural changes would, for example, give enhanced resoluteness. But the key question remains. What is really the purpose of the OSCE?... It is difficult to escape the feeling that the OSCE to a great extent is given the responsibility for all that is left over." EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC JAPAN: "OSCE Shows Its Limitations" Conservative Sankei's Lisbon correspondent Nozu wrote (12/4), "The OSCE summit ended on Tuesday with nothing to show except an ambiguous model declaration about the creation of a 'borderless and common' security zone in Europe. European leaders have held four OSCE summits since the end of the Cold War in order to find a new framework or a new vision of security. What became evident, however, was the limitation of the OSCE itself." CHINA: "Another Trial Of Strength Between Russia And U.S." Gao Shijun filed for official, Central Political and Legal Commission Legal Daily (Fazhi Ribao, 12/4), "During the (OSCE) meeting...the leaders of Russia and the United States engaged in a new trial of strength. Russia reiterated its firm opposition to NATO's expansion eastward and the United States emphasized that the expansion plan is not subject to change. This struggle shows that it will be hard to bridge the differences over how to build European security within Europe.... Divergent interests and many difficult, pressing problems that demand a European solution are affecting the establishment of a new, post-Cold War security architecture. Untiring efforts must be made in order to narrow the differences among the parties and to reach understanding. Many issues will remain unresolved after the OSCE meeting concludes." INDONESIA: "Our Definition Of Peace And Security" Leading, independent Kompas's editorial concluded (12/3) regarding OSCE, "Our definition of peace and security is more than just being free from war. We believe that true peace and security cannot occur so long as oppression, injustice, human rights violations, and poverty exist." ## OSCE IN LISBON: 'MARRED' BY ROW OVER EUROPEAN SECURITY