DATE=3/11/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42826
TITLE=RUSSIA / NATO
BYLINE=EVE CONANT
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  THE OFFICIAL INCLUSION INTO NATO OF FORMER WARSAW PACT 
ALLIES POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY IS A FURTHER 
REMINDER THAT RUSSIA'S STATUS AS A SUPERPOWER HAS EVAPORATED. 
VOA'S EVE CONANT REPORTS FROM MOSCOW ON WHY RUSSIA IS QUIETLY, 
BUT NOT HAPPILY, RESIGNED TO ITS FATE.

TEXT: ASK ANYONE IN RUSSIA HOW THEY FEEL ABOUT NATO EXPANSION, 
AND YOU WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY GET A NEGATIVE RESPONSE. MOSCOW'S 
OFFICIAL POSITION IS THAT NATO EXPANSION HARMS ITS SECURITY 
INTERESTS AND PUSHES RUSSIA OUT OF EUROPE'S SPHERE OF INFLUENCE. 
YET DESPITE YEARS OF ANTI-EXPANSION RHETORIC, THERE IS LITTLE 
MOSCOW CAN DO AS THE HOUR FOR THE NATO EXPANSION NEARS. 

///OPT/// IN 1955, THE SOVIET UNION AND SEVERAL EASTERN EUROPEAN 
COUNTRIES -- INCLUDING CZECHOSLOVAKIA, HUNGARY AND POLAND -- 
SIGNED THE WARSAW PACT.  THAT MILITARY ALLIANCE WAS FORMED TO 
COUNTERACT NATO EXPANSION IN EUROPE, SPECIFICALLY THE INTEGRATION
OF WEST GERMANY.  NOW, 44 YEARS LATER, THE THREE FORMER WARSAW 
PACT COUNTRIES ARE JOINING NATO, FORMING THE EASTERN EDGE TO 
THEIR FORMER ENEMY.  ///END OPT./// 

KNOWING THAT WARSAW, BUDAPEST AND PRAGUE WOULD BECOME NATO 
CAPITALS, MOSCOW IN 1997 SIGNED WHAT WAS KNOWN AS THE "FOUNDING 
ACT" WITH NATO.  IT GRANTS RUSSIA SOME SECURITY PLEDGES, SUCH AS 
NO  NUCLEAR WEAPONS PLANTED NEAR RUSSIAN BORDERS.  RUSSIA AND 
NATO ALSO FORMED A "JOINT PERMANENT COUNCIL" FOR CONSULTATIONS IN
WHICH RUSSIA WOULD HAVE A VOICE -- BUT NOT A VETO -- OVER 
SECURITY MATTERS.

DESPITE THESE AGREEMENTS, THE RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP CONSISTENTLY 
FEELS ITS OPINIONS ARE IGNORED WHEN CONFLICTS FLARE UP IN 
COUNTRIES SUCH AS YUGOSLAVIA AND IRAQ.  RUSSIA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY
SPOKESMAN VLADIMIR RAKHMANIN TELLS V-O-A THE ENTRY OF THREE 
EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES INTO NATO JUST MAKE MATTERS WORSE. 

                   //OPT// ///RAKHMANIN ACT///

         WE DO  NOT  BELIEVE THAT NATO ENLARGEMENT WILL HELP MUCH
         TO NATO SECURITY.  IT WILL BRING US BACK TO THE 
         SITUATION WITH NEW DIVIDING LINES, AND IT WILL BRING THE
         NATO MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE TO RUSSIA'S BORDERS. 

                    ///END ACT/// //END OPT//

BUT MR. RAKHMANIN UNDERLINES RUSSIA'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE 
INEVITABLE.

                   ///SECOND RAKHMANIN ACT///

         WE ARE AGAINST NATO ENLARGEMENT AND THIS IS QUITE 
         OBVIOUS TO OUR PARTNERS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE 
         UNDERSTAND THAT NATO IS THE REALITY OF TODAY. AND WE ARE
         GOING TO COOPERATE WITH NATO IN THE AREAS WHERE OUR 
         INTERESTS COINCIDE.

                          ///END ACT///

NO OTHER ISSUE SO UNITES RUSSIA'S DIVIDED POLITICIANS AS THEIR 
OPPOSITION TO NATO EXPANSION.  FROM LIBERALS TO HARD-LINE 
COMMUNISTS, NATO ENLARGEMENT IS VIEWED WITH SUSPICION AND FEAR.  
//OPT// IN AN INTERVIEW WITH CZECH TELEVISION, OUTSPOKEN 
ULTRANATIONALIST VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY TOLD THE INTERVIEWER THAT 
WHEN THE CZECH REPUBLIC JOINS FRIDAY, IT WILL BECOME AN "ENEMY 
STATE."  HE PROPOSES AN ECONOMIC BLOCKADE AGAINST THE FORMER COLD
WAR ALLY.  //END OPT//

RUSSIA'S NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBLE NATO INTEGRATION OF THE THREE 
BALTIC STATES -- ESTONIA, LATVIA AND LITHUANIA.  BUT DIMITRY 
TRENIN OF MOSCOW'S CARNEGIE INSTITUTE POINTS OUT THAT POST-SOVIET
ECONOMIC REALITY HAS LEFT RUSSIA  NO  MILITARY OPTION TO BACK UP 
ITS OPPOSITION.

                        ///TRENIN ACT/// 

         RUSSIANS REALIZE HOW LIMITED THEIR FINANCIAL RESOURCES 
         ARE, HOW DEPENDENT THEY ARE ON THE INTERNATIONAL 
         FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, ON THEIR CREDITORS IN THE WEST. 
         RUSSIANS DON'T WANT TO SHUT THEMSELVES OUT OF THIS 
         WORLD. IT ALSO HELPS THAT THERE IS PRECIOUS LITTLE 
         RHETORIC THIS TIME ABOUT IMMINENT MEMBERSHIP IN NATO FOR
         THE THREE BALTIC STATES. WHAT THEY STILL FIND IMPOSSIBLE
         TO ACCEPT IS THAT ANY FORMER SOVIET REPUBLIC JOINS NATO.

                          ///END ACT///

//OPT// BUT THERE ARE THOSE WHO SAY RUSSIA'S RESOLVE MAY STIFFEN 
IN THE WAKE OF NATO EXPANSION.  THE CHIEF DEFENSE CORRESPONDENT 
FOR RUSSIA'S "SEVODNYA" MAGAZINE, PAVEL FELGENHAUER, EXPECTS THAT
ONCE REALITY SETS IN, RUSSIA'S SILENT STANCE MAY CHANGE. 

                     /// FELGENHAUER ACT/// 

         NATO EXPANSION IS UNACCEPTABLE OF COURSE TO RUSSIA. IT 
         ALWAYS WAS. IT SOURED RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE 
         WEST FOR THE COMING DECADES. IT'S A MAJOR IRRITANT. IT'S
         CAUSING GROWING ANTI-WESTERN FEELINGS THROUGHOUT  
         RUSSIA'S RULING ELITE AND SOCIETY AND, OF COURSE, THAT 
         WILL CONTINUE AS NATO EXPANSION GOES FROM THE VIRTUAL 
         WORLD OF TREATY SIGNING TO THE ACTUAL REDEPLOYMENT OF 
         FORCES, POSSIBLY ALONG RUSSIA'S BORDERS. 

                    ///END ACT/// //END OPT//

ON THE EVE OF EXPANSION CEREMONIES, RUSSIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER 
SAYS THE ENTRY OF POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY INTO 
NATO IS "A MOVEMENT IN THE WRONG DIRECTION."  INTERVIEWS WITH 
OTHER POLICYMAKERS REVEAL A GROWING SENSE OF FRUSTRATION AS 
RUSSIA WATCHES ITS FORMER ALLIES JOIN WHAT MANY STILL SEE AS THE 
ENEMY. (SIGNED)

NEB/EC/KL 

11-Mar-99 9:57 AM EST (1457 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.