DATE=3/11/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42829 TITLE=NATO/BALTICS BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN DATELINE=TALLINN CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: NATO'S EXPANSION IS BEING VIEWED WITH SPECIAL INTEREST IN THE BALTIC COUNTRIES, WHERE MEMORIES ARE STILL FRESH AFTER FIVE DECADES OF SOVIET RULE. FROM THE ESTONIAN CAPITAL, TALLINN, V-O-A'S PETER HEINLEIN REPORTS THE BALTICS ARE HOPING NATO WILL SOON BE READY FOR A SECOND ROUND OF ENLARGEMENT THAT WOULD TAKE THE ALLIANCE RIGHT UP TO THE BORDER OF THE RUSSIAN MAINLAND. TEXT: ///SFX OF FOOTSTEPS, PEOPLE TALKING, THEN UNDER TO.../// THE COBBLESTONE STREETS OF TALLINN'S OLD CITY TELL A DIZZYING TALE OF ELEVEN CENTURIES OF CONQUEST. THIS STRATEGIC TRADING CENTER HAS BEEN INVADED BY DANES, SWEDES, GERMANS AND POLES, NOT TO MENTION THE RUSSIANS, WHO FIRST CAPTURED ESTONIA DURING THE TIME OF PETER THE GREAT. INDEPENDENCE HAS ALWAYS BEEN TENUOUS HERE. THE BALTIC NATIONS ARE SMALL. //OPT// SEVEN YEARS AFTER THE END OF SOVIET OCCUPATION, ESTONIA'S ENTIRE MILITARY STRENGTH STANDS AT ABOUT 25-HUNDRED SOLDIERS AND ONE-THOUSAND OFFICERS. //END OPT// SO ON THE BUSTLING STREETS OF TALLINN, THERE IS ALMOST UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT: ESTONIA NEEDS NATO PROTECTION. FIFTY-YEAR-OLD WRITER AND AMATEUR SOCIOLOGIST RAIVO JUUROK SAYS DECADES OF SOVIET RULE HAVE LEFT A LEGACY OF DEEP SUSPICION. ///JUUROK ACT/// MANY ESTONIANS HOPE RUSSIA WILL GO THE SAME WAY WE HAVE GONE. BUT OF COURSE THERE ARE AGAIN, MAYBE 30 PERCENT OF ESTONIANS WHO SAY YOU CANNOT TRUST THEM. NEVER. NEVER TRUST RUSSIA. ///END ACT/// //OPT// ///ESTABLISH SFX OF PORT, BOXES BEING LOADED, THEN UNDER TO.../// AT TALLINN'S PORT, HUGE CRANES ARE BUSY SHIPPING CARGO TO AND FROM DESTINATIONS ALL OVER THE WORLD. THAT IS WHY PETER THE GREAT CALLED THE BALTICS RUSSIA'S WINDOW TO THE WEST. //END OPT// HISTORIAN AKSEL KIRCH OF THE CENTER FOR EUROPEAN RESEARCH IN TALLINN SAYS IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE RUSSIA SIMPLY ACCEPTING THE PRESENCE OF NATO FORCES HERE. ///KIRCH ACT IN ESTONIAN, THEN UNDER TO TRANSLATOR /// THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT STRATEGIC CHANNEL FOR RUSSIA. FOR THEM, THE BALTICS AND THE GULF OF FINLAND HAVE ALWAYS MEANT ACCESS TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD. LOSING IT IS PROBABLY NOT SO MUCH A MILITARY BLOW AS A PSYCHOLOGICAL ONE. SOMETHING HAS BEEN TAKEN AWAY FROM THEM. ///END ACT/// BALTIC STRATEGIC PLANNERS UNDERSTAND NATO MEMBERSHIP IS PROBABLY STILL SEVERAL YEARS AWAY. BUT THE PRESIDENTS OF THE THREE BALTIC STATES MET RECENTLY TO URGE THE ALLIANCE TO NAME SPECIFIC CANDIDATE COUNTRIES AND PROVIDE A ROAD MAP FOR PROSPECTIVE MEMBERS AT ITS WASHINGTON SUMMIT NEXT MONTH. SULEV KANNIKE, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE POLITICAL DEPARTMENT AT ESTONIA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY, SAYS SUCH A COMMITMENT WOULD CALM THE FEARS OF SMALL COUNTRIES NERVOUSLY WATCHING THE POLITICAL TURMOIL AROUND THEM. ///KANNIKE ACT/// WE SEE WHAT IS IN THE BALKANS. WE KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON IN RUSSIA, WHICH IS OUR GOOD NEIGHBOR. BUT NOBODY, I THINK NOT EVEN RUSSIAN POLITICIANS COULD DENY, NOBODY WOULD PREDICT WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN RUSSIA DURING THE NEXT THREE YEARS. SO WE ARE SPEAKING NOT ABOUT HARD SECURITY, BUT GUARANTEES AGAINST THE GENERAL INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD AND EUROPE, AND ABOUT THE FULL SCALE INTEGRATION OF EUROPE AS WELL. ///END ACT/// //OPT// MR. KANNIKE SAYS HE IS GREATLY DISTURBED BY THE ARGUMENT THAT NATO SHOULD NOT BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE TERRITORY OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. ///SECOND KANNIKE ACT/// BUT THERE IS NO SOVIET UNION. THIS IS EXAMPLE OF ARGUMENT COMING FROM (THE) PAST. AND WE COULDN'T ACCEPT IT. WE ARE (A) REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA, NOT A PART OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. ///END ACT/// //END OPT// SO AS NATO TAKES IN THREE NEW MEMBERS, ESTONIANS SEE CAUSE FOR HOPE. AFTER MORE THAN A THOUSAND YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY, THIS LITTLE COUNTRY AND ITS BALTIC NEIGHBORS MAY FINALLY FEEL THE COMFORT OF A LONG-TERM GUARANTEE OF INDEPENDENCE. (SIGNED) NEB/PFH/PCF 11-Mar-99 12:50 PM EST (1750 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .