August 1999

Global Humanitarian Emergencies:Trends and Projections, 1999-2000

Information available as of 15 August 1999 was used in preparing this report.

Contents

Scope Note

Summary

Discussion

Global Overview

The Current Picture

Looking Ahead

The Changing Character of Humanitarian Emergencies in the 1990s

Emergencies Caused by Conflicts or Government Repression

The Impact of Conflicts Caused by Genocide and Other Crimes Against Humanity

Emergencies Caused Primarily by Sudden Economic Crises or Natural and Technological Disasters

Factors Affecting Humanitarian Response

The Question of Intervention

Capacities for Humanitarian Military Assistance

Capacities of International Relief Organizations

Availability of Food Aid

Outlook

Political Will

Funding


Scope Note

This assessment focuses on humanitarian emergencies arising from manmade causes and/or major natural disasters.

Summary

Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000

Both the number and intensity of humanitarian emergencies, as well as the number of people in need, will remain at about the same high level or even increase somewhat by December 2000- testing the capacity and willingness of the international donor community to respond adequately. According to the US Committee for Refugees, roughly 35 million people are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. There are twenty-four ongoing humanitarian emergencies and new or renewed emergencies could appear in the Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and/or Central America.

In addition to the emergencies cited above, several other major countries and regions may experience conflict, political instability, sudden economic crises, or technological or natural disasters- leading to new or renewed humanitarian emergencies:

The overall demand for emergency humanitarian assistance through December 2000 may exceed the willingness of major donor countries to respond. Overall funding for ongoing emergencies has probably temporarily spiked upward owing to Hurricane Mitch and Kosovo. Nevertheless, the focus on the Balkans could detract attention and resources from other regions with extensive humanitarian needs. Absent major new emergencies, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue downward, increasing the shortfall. Government funding is likely to decline fastest for long-lasting conflicts where attempts at political resolution continue to fail.

The Changing Character of Humanitarian Emergencies

Humanitarian emergencies are being affected by the changing practices and military capabilities of combatants, the lasting impact of conflicts triggered by genocide and other crimes against humanity, and the impact of sudden economic crises:

Factors Affecting Humanitarian Response

Democratic governments, energized by NGO pressures, media-inspired public awareness of suffering in selected parts of the world, changing political and legal norms, and their own humanitarian impulses face increasing pressures to respond to humanitarian crises. Donor governments are
wrestling with the conditions under which they will use military force to intervene.

Changing Legal Norms. In recent years, the balance between the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of sovereign states and justifications for international humanitarian intervention in response to grave violations of human rights and international humanitarian law gradually has been shifting in favor of intervention, particularly for those emergencies that involve genocide or genocide-like conflict. At the same time, the assertion of the right to state sovereignty by some countries will continue to be a major stumbling block to early action in a potential humanitarian emergency.

Changing Political Expectations. The dominance of democratic states since the Cold War ended-together with growing popular demands for civil liberties and/or self-determination in authoritarian or failing states-increases pressures for humanitarian response. This is particularly true when outside assistance is by mutual consent, but political support is also increasing for humanitarian interventions backed by the threat or use of military force in certain instances. Emergencies provoked by genocide and other atrocities will evoke the strongest political, NGO, and public pressures to intervene. Some developing countries, however, will continue to criticize what they view as donor countries' uneven responses to humanitarian emergencies, comparing the largesse shown in the Balkans with the more limited aid to emergencies in the developing world.

Capacities of Relief Organizations. The overall capacity of international relief organizations to respond to humanitarian emergencies has improved modestly over time, but problems will persist. Despite progress in strengthening UN agencies' operations over the last decade, rivalries among and within organizations will continue to impede the challenging tasks of managing humanitarian crises and undertaking longer-term reconstruction in places such as Kosovo.

Military Assistance. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Germany, and Russia are the only countries with the long-range military airlift capability required to deliver bulk humanitarian aid in large, sudden emergencies, or where humanitarian access is denied to large populations. While the capabilities of donor governments' military forces to participate in humanitarian emergencies remain relatively fixed, the Kosovo crisis and the heightened public interest in humanitarian response will place growing demands on them.

Food Availability. Slightly tighter world grain supplies for 1999/2000 are not likely to have a significant impact on the availability of emergency food aid, the supply of which can be boosted by the major food-donating countries in response to an unexpected increase in worldwide emergency food aid needs. However, people targeted for emergency food aid in countries where the host government either denies access to organizations or diverts some of the aid for its own needs may not receive assistance.

Outlook

While democratic governments will continue to be responsive to humanitarian emergencies, their willingness to undertake major humanitarian operations-particularly forceful interventions-is likely to remain constrained. Over the next few years, the perception of success or failure of NATO's military interventions in the Balkans, particularly the costly humanitarian and reconstruction efforts in Kosovo, will influence the scale and scope of subsequent humanitarian interventions.

Discussion

Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections 1999-2000

Global Overview

The Current Picture

The number of ongoing humanitarian emergencies has increased from 21 to 24 since July 1998:

While the number of emergencies has increased, the number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance worldwide-including internally diplaced persons (IDPs), refugees, and others in need of such assistance-has not changed appreciably.

Looking Ahead

Ongoing Humanitarian Emergencies.

Both the number and intensity of humanitarian emergencies, as well as the number of people in need, are likely to remain at about the same high level or even increase somewhat by December 2000-testing the capacity and willingness of the international donor community to respond adequately. This will be especially likely if one or more potential emergencies develop or humanitarian conditions deteriorate in large and populous countries such as DROC or Ethiopia.

Ongoing Emergencies with Greatest Impact.

Humanitarian conditions throughout the former Yugoslavia, Haiti, Iraq, and North Korea will continue to have significant impact upon regional stability as well as on the strategic interests of major outside powers.

- Kosovo. Because of continuing international attention and a modicum of political stability enforced by NATO, Kosovo is likely to experience major improvements in humanitarian conditions. Nevertheless, reconstruction efforts will require substantial international assistance to provide a secure environment, return 1.5 million displaced ethnic Albanians to their homes, rebuild housing and infrastructure, and deliver emergency aid until farms and factories are restored to productivity. Unlike their neighbors in Bosnia and Herzegovina, many displaced Kosovo Albanians will be returning to empty and damaged houses and villages rather than confronting displaced persons from rival ethnic groups.

- Republic of Serbia outside Kosovo and the Republic of Montenegro. Humanitarian conditions, while not dire, likely will worsen somewhat as more than 100,000 Serbs from Kosovo add to the half million refugees from Bosnia and Croatia already in the FRY. The FRY's ability to provide support to Serb refugees and IDPs, and to repair damaged infrastructure, will be constrained by bleak economic prospects and the potential for growing domestic political unrest in the aftermath of the end of the conflict in Kosovo. As long as President Milosevic remains in power, international aid to Serbia will be limited largely to providing humanitarian relief rather than rebuilding the economic infrastructure, repairing damage from NATO bombing, and integrating refugees and IDPs.

- Conditions could also deteriorate in Montenegro if civil war breaks out with Serbia, or if international assistance cannot be effectively implemented.

- Improvements in Bosnia and Herzegovina are likely to continue through 2000, with extensive housing and economic reconstruction necessary to overcome a range of obstacles.

Other Severe Ongoing Emergencies. Other countries are considered to be of great concern based on the current scale of the humanitarian crisis, the projected outlook for the underlying causes, and/or the likelihood that the emergency will spread to neighboring countries:

Conflict may intensify or spread across clusters of African countries:

Potential Concerns. In addition to the emergencies cited above, several other major countries and regions may experience conflict, political instability, sudden economic crises, or natural disasters-leading to new or renewed humanitarian emergencies (see figure 2).

Probability: Low
Potential Impact: Very High

Probability: Low Potential Impact: High

Probability: Low Potential Impact: High

Probability: Low Potential Impact: Medium

Probability: Medium Potential Impact: Low

In addition to these country- and region-specific potential emergencies, more generalized conditions in the current international environment might result in humanitarian crises:

The Changing Character of Humanitarian Emergencies in the 1990s

The preponderance of ethnic and communal conflicts within and across national boundaries since the Cold War's end has increased the number and changed the character of humanitarian emergencies. According to the US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:

Since the late 1980s, the total number of IDPs has exceeded the number of refugees due to the increasing number of internal conflicts (see figure 5).

The Potential Humanitarian Impact of the Y2K Problem

The Y2K computer problem will affect hardware, embedded processors, and software throughout the world, including basic infrastructure such as telecommunications, power plants, and water systems. All countries are likely to experience some Y2K disruptions, and many countries will suffer a breakdown of at least part of their basic infrastructure.

Y2K-related disruptions have the potential to cause or exacerbate humanitarian crises. These include prolonged outages of power and heat, breakdowns in urban water supplies, military miscalculations due to failures in early warning systems, malfunctions in nuclear power plants, serious food shortages, and environmental disasters resulting from failures in safety controls.

Multiple and simultaneous emergencies on a global scale would quickly overwhelm national and international institutions responsible for providing humanitarian relief. Furthermore, some relief organizations probably will be hindered by Y2K failures in their communications, records-keeping, and transport capabilities.

Although Y2K remediation is not technically challenging in principle, it is costly, time-consuming, and labor-intensive. Many firms and governments have difficulty managing such a large-scale task. The private sector and governments in some countries are developing contingency plans to manage the impact on the general population, but these efforts are often poorly funded.

Emergencies Caused by Conflicts or Government Repression

Civilians have increasingly become key targets for combatants on all sides. War has become as much about displacing people as moving borders, creating an ever deeper chasm between the military goals of combatants and humanitarian aims. The extent of atrocities against noncombatants has apparently intensified, while humanitarian organizations are increasingly viewed as biased by one side or another, exposing relief workers to retaliation.

Changing Combatant Practices.

Combatants are employing starvation, slaughter and various civilian and military technologies to expel or kill civilians. Techniques include demonstration killings and maiming (as in Sierra Leone), systematic rape (Bosnia and Herzegovina), instigation or encouragement of atrocities through radio broadcasts (Rwanda), the wholesale expulsion of civilians (Kosovo), and the use of civilians as human shields (Kosovo).

Combatants Manipulating International Opinion.

In conducting their campaigns, political and military leaders of combatant groups are becoming attentive to the ways in which outside powers react to other combatant leaders, as well as to the prospects that they will be held accountable for illegal behavior under international law. The growing prominence of human rights in international politics and law, however, will incline combatants to attempt to conceal their atrocities and to deny humanitarian access. Combatants also will attempt to publicize, or even concoct, atrocities by the other side.

Combatants Increasingly Well-Armed.

The halting pace of the economic transitions in the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union has sparked an aggressive marketing competition that now dominates the global arms market. The availability of relatively inexpensive weapons plays a key role in facilitating or perpetuating conflicts that cause humanitarian emergencies throughout the world:

Increasing Risks to Aid Workers.

During the 1990s, humanitarian aid workers have increasingly been targeted by combatants as they operate in "harm's way" in the midst of internal conflict. The fact that humanitarian organizations are increasingly operating in areas where there is no clear recognized governmental authority means they have to negotiate access with multiple parties, leaving them vulnerable to manipulation for political purposes. Instances of killing, injury and kidnapping of aid workers, as well as looting and blackmail are on the rise:

The Impact of Conflicts Caused by Genocide and Other Crimes Against Humanity

Genocidal or genocide-like conflicts aimed at annihilating all or part of a racial, religious, or ethnic group, and conflicts caused by other crimes against humanity-such as forced, large-scale expulsions of populations-are likely to generate the most intractable humanitarian needs:

Responding to the large numbers of refugees and IDPs triggered by a genocidal or genocidal-like conflict imposes large political and security risks. Such conflicts will place substantial demands on available resources-several billion dollars each in the cases of Rwanda, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo-and require substantial security for military personnel, civilian officials, and humanitarian relief workers.

Emergencies Caused Primarily by Sudden Economic Crises or Natural and Technological Disasters

Sudden economic downturns can combine with natural or technological disasters to accentuate or create humanitarian emergencies in developing countries lacking the infrastructure and government capacity to cope with them. These types of humanitarian emergencies are often exacerbated by other factors-such as deep ethnic, social, and political fissures-raising their costs and delaying their recovery.

Factors Affecting Humanitarian Response

Democratic governments, energized by NGO pressures, media-inspired public awareness of suffering in selected parts of the world, changing political and legal norms, and their own humanitarian impulses, face increasing pressures to respond to humanitarian emergencies. Donor governments' military forces and international relief organizations will be challenged to respond to the ongoing and potential emergencies outlined above.

The Question of Intervention

There are two broad categories of humanitarian response:

Donor governments are wrestling with the conditions under which they will use military force to intervene in humanitarian emergencies. In general, assertion of the right to noninterference by some countries will continue to be a major stumbling block to early action in a potential humanitarian emergency. Governments that provoke, inflame, or tolerate a given humanitarian emergency are for political or economic reasons often reluctant to admit the existence of IDPs, grant asylum to refugees from neighboring countries, or consent to the delivery of outside assistance-unless they find they can exploit the humanitarian relief operations for political or financial gain.

International Legal Norms.

In recent years, the balance between the legal principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of sovereign states and various legal justifications for international intervention in response to threats to international peace and security, grave violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, and crimes against humanity has been shifting somewhat in favor of intervention. This is particularly the case for those emergencies that might devolve into genocidal or genocide-like conflict. These shifts in legal principle are, however, by no means conclusive.

The UN Security Council continues to authorize or endorse peacekeeping missions primarily to address the security needs of a country or region and remains hesitant to establish operations for the primary purpose of ensuring the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Nonetheless, during this decade the Council has increasingly cited intervention for the purpose of ensuring humanitarian assistance as one justification for the international peacekeeping missions on its agenda.

Changing Political Norms.

The post-Cold War political, military, and economic dominance of democratic states-together with the growing drives for civil liberties, democracy, and/or self-determination in authoritarian or failing states-creates pressures on behalf of humanitarian response. This is particularly true when such outside assistance is by mutual consent. In certain instances, public and political support is also increasing for military interventions to pursue humanitarian objectives.

Capacities for Humanitarian Military Assistance

The Kosovo crisis and the heightened public interest in humanitarian response will place growing demands on military capabilities for humanitarian assistance. However, the capabilities of donor governments' military forces to participate in humanitarian emergencies have not changed substantially in recent years.

Capacities of International Relief Organizations

The international response to humanitarian emergencies is carried out through a loosely organized and loosely coordinated network of inter-governmental and nongovernmental relief organizations. These are supported by governments that provide financial and in-kind resources, undertake political and diplomatic initiatives, and, in some instances, dispatch military forces for humanitarian assistance or forceful intervention on behalf of civilian populations. The overall capacity of international relief organizations to respond to humanitarian emergencies has improved modestly over time, but problems are likely to persist:

Relief Agencies Wary of Operating in Hostile Environments.

As humanitarian relief workers are put at increasing risk from local governments and political authorities, and outside states provide uneven security, many aid workers have called for greater use of outside military force to ensure their physical security.

Overall, relief agencies have come to doubt whether the UN, regional organizations, or international military coalition forces will provide adequate security for ongoing humanitarian operations. Therefore, most humanitarian organizations have begun to prepare themselves better to work in hostile environments: they are buying thick-skinned vehicles; taking security awareness and defensive driving courses; hiring security directors from among retired Western military officers, and acquiring more security guards. Even the ICRC-which usually will not accept any military escort-now sometimes hires local guards for its own facilities and equipment.

In the absence of adequate security, increasing numbers of UN agencies, NGOs and the ICRC sometimes temporarily withdraw from particularly dangerous situations. In the 1990s, relief workers have pulled out of Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chechnya, eastern DROC, Liberia, northwest Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Somalia due to increased security risks.

Availability of Food Aid

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that in 1998, food aid totaled 8 million metric tons (MMt)--up 10 percent from the previous year--of which emergency food aid amounted to almost 3 MMt. The increase, following a four-year decline, was due to higher food aid needs, particularly in Asia; a bumper world grain harvest in 1997/98; high stock levels in donor countries; low grain prices; and a commitment on the part of the major donors to increase their food aid donations. Total food aid-which includes food aid for humanitarian emergencies as well as for chronic food deficits-remains far below the peak level of 17.3 million metric tons in 1993 (see figure 7)-when demand also approached a peak.

According to the most recent USDA estimates, total world grain production (wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice) for 1999/2000 will be 1.840 billion tons, down from 1.848 last year and down from the record 1997/98 harvest of 1.876 billion. This is still a bumper crop, with wheat at 570 million tons, coarse grains at 880 million, and a forecast record 390 million ton rice crop. World oilseed production (soybeans, cottonseed, peanut oil, sunflower seed oil, etc.) is forecast at a record 298 million tons.

Nevertheless, a drawdown of world grain reserves accumulated during the last three years may be necessary to meet projected 1999/2000 consumption needs. Slightly tighter world grain supplies for 1999/2000 are not likely to have a significant impact on the availability of emergency food aid, the supply of which can be boosted by the major food donating countries in response to an unexpected increase in worldwide emergency food aid needs.

Outlook

The overall "demand" for emergency humanitarian assistance through December 2000 is likely to exceed the willingness of major donor countries to respond. Governments will continue to prioritize humanitarian emergencies according to their national interests. Only some "supply" components of humanitarian assistance-notably food-are likely to be adequate. The capacity of international humanitarian aid organizations to respond will continue to be limited by resources and hostile environments.

Political Will

The decisions of countries to respond to humanitarian emergencies will depend upon whether or not their national interests outweigh competing domestic priorities, a potentially negative political reaction at home, and the dangers and substantial costs involved in providing such assistance.

Funding

National governments-principally the OECD countries-provide the bulk of financial resources for emergency humanitarian relief. These funds are provided to UN organizations, the ICRC, NGOs, and recipient governments through bilateral grants. The data provided by various international agencies concerning funding for humanitarian emergencies is fragmentary, often noncomparable, and sometimes contradictory (see Table 1.)

Although overall funding for ongoing humanitarian emergencies has probably temporarily spiked upward owing to the crises in Central America and Kosovo, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue downward absent new emergencies. Hurricane Mitch and Kosovo-like the earlier cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina or Rwanda-probably elicited considerable resources that normally would not go into the humanitarian assistance pipeline.

Table 1

Annual Official Development Assistance (ODA)
and Humanitarian Emergency Aid Provided by
Development Assistance Committee Members

 
 

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

ODA
58.1
60.1
60.8
56.5
59.2
58.9
55.4
48.3
Humanitarian Aid
2.5
4.8
4.7
5.2
>6.0
>4.2
>3.8
˜
(Percent of ODA)
(4.3)
(8.0)
(7.7)
(9.2)
(~10)
(~ 7)
(~ 6.8)
˜


At the same time, there is evidence that the preoccupation with the Balkans is at least temporarily threatening the overall resources available for responding to other humanitarian emergencies. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is concerned that support for Kosovo is diverting relief efforts from protracted humanitarian emergencies in other countries. For example, in 1998, 93 percent of the UN appeal for Kosovo was funded, but only 41 percent of the Great Lakes appeal was funded-down from 84 percent in 1997. The same pattern of largesse toward Kosovo and parsimony toward Sub-Saharan Africa is evident so far this year according to the UN High Commissioner.

Funding of UN Consolidated Appeals-one component of overall funding--declined from 79 percent in 1994 to 54 percent in 1998 (see figure 8). As of early June 1999, the UN had received only 30 percent of the $1.7 billion requested for humanitarian emergencies this year.

In the future, donor countries are likely to focus their funding for humanitarian response even more on crises of strategic or regional importance:

Absent several major new emergencies, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue along a path of gradual decline:

In the future, major donations from the private sector are likely to provide an increasing share of the funding for humanitarian emergencies. Continuing economic growth in some developed countries enables private organizations and wealthy individuals to play larger roles in funding a number of public purposes, including large-scale humanitarian assistance. In some countries, such as Nigeria, there is increasing pressure for foreign investors to provide "preemptive" humanitarian support.


Footnote:

1 The figures cited in this paper for the total number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance worldwide were pro-vided by the US Committee for Refugees (USCR). Because this paper focuses only on those emergencies in which 300,000 people or more people are in need, the totals listed for individual countries will not add up to the USCR’s worldwide total of roughly 35 million.


Source: National Intelligence Council