Subject: IRAQI FACILITIES

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







CIA 597139







SUBJECT: THE STATUS OF IRAQ'S FACILITIES TO PRODUCE WEAPONS  OF  MASS

DESTRUCTION: A PRELIMINARY POSTWAR ASSESSMENT







IRAQI FACILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL AND

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND WITH BALLISTIC MISSILES HAVE SUFFERED EXTENSIVE

DAMAGE. IN MOST CASES, THE RESTORATION OF THESE FACILITIES WOULD

TAKE AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS AND REQUIRE EXTENSIVE ASSISTANCE OF

FOREIGN SUPPLIERS. OUR OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THESE RESPECTIVE AREAS

 IS AS FOLLOWS:

X--IRAQ'S ABILITY TO RESEARCH, DEVELOP, AND PRODUCE CW AGENTS

HAS BEEN SEVERELY REDUCED, BUT IT ALMOST CERTAINLY MAINTAINS A

VIABLE CHEMICAL WEAPONS STOCKPILE.

X--ALL FIVE FACILITIES SUSPECTED OF ASSOCIATION WITH IRAQ'S BW

PRODUCTION EFFORTS HAVE BEEN DAMAGED. IRAQ PROBABLY STILL WOULD BE

ABLE TO PRODUCE MILITARILY SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF THESE AGENTS,

HOWEVER, BECAUSE PRODUCTION  OF  BW  AGENTS  COULD  BE  CONCEALED  AT

PHARMACEUTICAL PLANTS AND SMALL LABORATORIES THAT ARE STILL INTACT.

X--IRAQ'S SHORT-TERM OPTION FOR A NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITY-

-UNDER A BREAKOUT SCENARIO IN WHICH SAFEGUARDED NUCLEAR MATERIAL IS

DIVERTED FROM IRAQI RESEARCH REACTORS--HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGED.

DAMAGE TO IRAQ'S TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER AND INFRASTRUCTURE

PROBABLY HAS SET BACK IRAQ'S LONG-TERM WEAPONS PROGRAM

X--IRAQ'S PROGRAM TO MODIFY AND REENGINEER SCUD B'S AT AT TAJI

HAS BEEN

SEVERELY IMPAIRED. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO          MAJOR BALLISTIC

MISSILE R&D AND PRODUCTION FACILITIES ALSO HAS VIRTUALLY   DESTROYED

IRAQ'S ABILITY TO INDIGENOUSLY PRODUCE  SURFACE-TO-SURFACE  MISSILES.

IRAQ PROBABLY CANNOT REBUILD AND REEQUIP THESE  FACILITIES  IN  FEWER

THAN FIVE YEARS.

IRAQ'S EFFORTS TO DEVELOP AN INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION BASE FOR

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION CLEARLY HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY SET BACK.







THE IRAQIS WILL NEED SUBSTANTIAL OUTSIDE

ASSISTANCE







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