Asked of

Assistant Secretary of State


Intelligence and Research

Carl W. Ford, Jr.

By the

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

February 6, 2002

The Intelligence Community's Ability to Monitor Terrorist Activity

1) The Intelligence Community is America's early warning system against threats to American lives and property both here and overseas. What are the Intelligence Community's greatest strengths and deficiencies in monitoring terrorism? What lessons have you learned from September 11, 2001, to address any shortcomings? Do you all believe that you have sufficient resources to fight the war on terrorism?

Duration of the War on Terror

2) In his speech to the Joint Session of Congress last September 20, President Bush said of the war on terrorism that "it will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated." In your opinion, how long will it take to attain this objective?

Nations Supporting Terrorism

3) In his Speech to a Joint Session of Congress last September 20, President Bush stated that "from this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." The Secretary of State maintains a list of countries that have "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism." Currently, the seven countries on this terrorism list are: Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria. How good is our intelligence on the terrorist related activities of these countries? Has the intelligence community noted any increase or diminution of these countries support to terrorism since last September 11, 2001?

Embassy and Overseas Facilities Security

Q. 4) What is the nature and extend to the terrorist threat to U.S. Diplomatic and military facilities overseas and how has it changed since September 11, 2001? Do you believe that the Departments of Defense and State have taken appropriate security measures to address the terrorist threat to all of their overseas facilities?

Possible Terrorist use of "Conflict Diamonds"

Q. 5) The mining and sales of diamonds by parties to armed conflicts -- particularly Angola, Sierra Leone and the Democraic Republic of the Congo -- are regarded as a significant factor fueling such hostilities. These diamonds, known as "conflict diamonds" comprise an estimated 3.7 to 15% of the value of the global diamond trade. Do you have any information that "conflict diamonds" are being used to subsidize the activities of terrorist groups, including Al-Qa'ida?

The Situation in Iraq

Q.6) What is the likelihood that Saddam Hussein will be in power one year from now? How good is the Intelligence Community's ability to ascertain what is going on in Iraq? What is the likeliest scenario for Iraq when Saddam is removed from the scene? How will Iran and other neighboring countries react to Saddam's departure (e.g., invasion)? What evidence does the Intelligence Community have that Iraq may have been involved in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks? If the U.S. were to take military action to remove Saddam from power, what would be the likely reaction to this from U.S. allies, as well as other countries in the region?

Q. Is the Iraqi military's readiness at a high enough level to pose a significant threat to neighboring countries? What is the status of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capability?


Situation in Iran

Q. 7) What is the status of President Khatami's hold onpower? To what extent has he been an agent for democratic reform? Would it be accurate to characterize Iran as being as democratic a government as any other nation in the Islamic world?

Q. What is your assessment of the nature and extent of Iran's support for international terrorism? Does Iran continue to provide assistance to Hizballah in Lebanon and to Islamic-oriented Palestinian groups that oppose the Arab-Israeli peace process, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)? To what extent has the Iranian government provided support to the effort against al-Qa'ida and the Taliban since September 11, 2001?

Q. What is the status of Iran's WMD efforts? Does Iran continue to receive weaponry and WMD-related technology from China, Russia and North Korea?

Iranian Missile Capabilities

Q. 8) Last December's NIE on the ballistic missile threat states that "Iran is pursuing short- and long-range missile capabilities." Iran has one of the largest missile inventories in the Middle East. The Iranian missile program is designed to confront what specific security threats? Under what circumstances, if any, would Iran be likely to curtail its missile program?

Stability of the Jordanian Regime

Q. 9) How stable is the Jordanian regime of King Abdullah? What threats does King Abdullah face from Islamic fundamentalists? What is the likelihood that resurgent Palestinian nationalism will destabilize Jordan?

Saudi Arabia

Q: 10) How stable is the Saudi Government?

Q. What factors would be most likely to bring about change in that country?

Q: To what extent are the Saudi government and public supportive of the U.S. led campaign against UBL and terrorism?

Q. To what extent would the removal of US military forces from Saudi Arabia diminish anti-U.S. sentiment both within Saudi Arabia and throughout the Islamic world?

Stability of the Syrian Regime

Q. 11) How stable is the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Asad? What are the most significant threats to his regime? What is the status of Syria's weapons of mass destruction infrastructure, as well as its support for international terrorism?

Qadhafi's Hold on Power in Libya

Q. 12) What is your assessment of Qadhafi's hold on power in Libya? What is your assessment of Qadhafi's ability to both further and frustrate Western policy objectives in the region? What is the status of Libya's weapons of mass destruction infrastructure, as well as its support for international terrorism?

Possibility of Support to Terrorists by the Palestinian Authority

Q. 13) Is there any evidence suggesting that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been involved with or supported terrorist activities in the last year?

Q: Who would be the likely successor to Arafat as the head of the Palestinian Authority?

Q: What is the likelihood that the Palestinian leadership will become more radical after Arafat leaves the scene?

Vietnam POW/MIA

Q. 14) What is your assessment of the level of assistance provided by the government of Vietnam to the U.S. on POW/MIA issues? Do you believe that there is any room for improvement in this area?

The India-Pakistan Conflict

Q. 18) What is the likelihood that India and Pakistan will go to war within the next year? What is the likelihood that such a conflict would result in an exchange of nuclear weapons? Which nation would likely prevail in such a conflict7 Why? what is the likelihood that both India and Pakistan will ultimately agree to accept the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir as their international border?

The Situation in North Korea

Q. 19) What is the likelihood that North and South Korea will unify within the next 5 years? What is the likelihood that unification between North and South Korea will be a peaceful process? Under what circumstances would a war be likely? How strong is Kim Jong Il's hold on power? Who will likely succeed him?


Q. 20) What is the likelihood that China will decrease its proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles?

Q. To what extent have you observed an improvement in China's human rights policy?

Q. How cooperative has China been with the U.S. on the war on terror?

Q. To what extent have close US-Taiwan relations been an impediment to closer US-China ties?

The Security of U.S. Interests in the Philippines

Q. 21) U.S. forces are providing training to the Philippine military. To what extent are U.S. personnel and interests in the Philippines at risk by Philippine Communist groups and Islamic extremists? To what extent has President Macapagal-Arroyo been made politically vulnerable by maintaining close ties to the U.S. and receiving counter terrorism support from the U.S. military?


Q: 23) Colombia: To what extent is Colombia's weak economy -- falling exports, lack of progress on fiscal reforms, high unemployment -- having an impact on Colombia's government reform initiatives? What is the likelihood that President Pastrana will be able to reach a final settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) within the next year?


Q. 25) In the year since his inauguration, how successful has Mexico's President Fox been in bringing about an end to corruption, stepping up the fight against illicit narcotics, focusing more on human rights and generally bringing effective governance to his country?

Implications of U.S. Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty

Q. 26) On December 13, 2001, President Bush notified Russia that the U.S. intends to withdraw from the ABM Treaty -- the withdrawal to be completed in June of this year. How will Russia react militarily to the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty7 What will China's likely military reaction be? What is the likelihood that the deployment of a U.S. ballistic missile defense will lead to the escalation of ballistic missile and tactical missile defense systems by other countries, as well as a commensurate increase in the number of ballistic and tactical missiles to overwhelm these defensive systems?

North Korea's Taepo Dong-2

Q. 27) Last December's NIE on the ballistic missile threat states that "North Korea's multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized (several hundred kilogram) payload, may be ready for flight testing." What will be the impact of the continuation of the North's flight-test moratorium on the development of the Taepo Dong-2?

Q: Under what circumstances would North Korea be likely to use its missile capability against the U.S.?

Q: What is the current estimate of the size of North Korea's nuclear weapon arsenal?

Q: How confident are we that North Korea is complying with the terms of the 1994 Agreed Framework regarding plutonium production activities in Yongbyon?

Public Disclosure of the Aggregate Intelligence Budget

Q. 29) For a number of years, individuals have advocated the public disclosure of the aggregate intelligence budget. In your opinion, what would be the specific threat to U.S. national security from publicly disclosing the aggregate intelligence budget?