Washington, DC 20340


21 March 2002

Honorable Bob Graham
Chairman, Select Committee On Intelligence
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510

Dear Mr. Chairman:

On 6 February, Vice Admiral Wilson provided testimony before the Select Committee on Intelligence on the current and projected national security threats to the United States.

On 21 February, the committee forwarded several Questions for the Record the responses to which were to become part of the official transcript of the hearing.

Admiral Wilson has reviewed the responses to those questions and is herewith providing them for inclusion into the official record of the proceedings.

World Wide Threat Hearing

6 February 2002

QUESTION AREA: (U) Terrorism

QUESTION 1: The Intelligence Community is America's early warning system against threats to American lives and property both here and overseas.
A) (U) What are the Intelligence Community's greatest strengths and deficiencies in monitoring terrorism?
B) (U) What lessons have you learned from September 11, 2001 to address any shortcomings?
C) (U) Do you believe you have sufficient resources to fight the war on terrorism?

QUESTION AREA: (U) The continuing threat posed by al-Qaida:

QUESTION 2: A) (U) How many Taliban and al-Qaida members have been killed, wounded or captured since September 11?
B) (U) To what extent have al-Qaida and the Taliban been effectively eliminated as a threat to U.S. interests?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Status of U.S. Objectives in Afghanistan

QUESTION 3: (U) President Bush has indicated that among U.S. objectives in Afghanistan are the following: deliver to the U.S. all the leaders of al-Qa'ida who hide in Afghanistan; release all foreign nationals, including U.S. citizens, who have been unjustly imprisoned; closing every terrorist training camp in Afghanistan, and handing over every terrorist, and every person in their support structure, to appropriate authorities; and give the U.S. full access to terrorist training camps, so we can make sure they are no longer operating.
A) (U) Please provide an overview of the status of compliance with these demands.
B) (U) What level of commitment will need to be made to Afghanistan to prevent it from once again becoming a breeding place for international terrorism?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Nations Supporting Terrorism

QUESTION 4: (U) In his speech to a Joint Session of Congress last September 20, President Bush stated that "[f]rom this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." The Secretary of State maintains a list of countries that have "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism." Currently, the seven countries on this terrorism list are: Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria.
A) (U) How good is our intelligence on the terrorist related activities of these countries?
B) (U) Has the Intelligence Community noted any increase or diminution of these countries' support to terrorism since last September 11, 2001?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Embassy and Overseas Facilities Security

QUESTION 5: A) (U) What is the nature and extent of the terrorist threat to U.S. diplomatic and military facilities overseas and how has it changed since September 11, 2001?
B) (U) Do you believe that the Departments of Defense and State have taken appropriate security measures to address the terrorist threat to all of their overseas facilities?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Terrorism Issues QUESTION 6: (U) On November 13, President Bush signed a Military Order pertaining to the detention, treatment and trial of certain non-citizens in the current war on terrorism. Please describe how the IC is involved in this process, including the interrogation of prisoners?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Possible Terrorist Use of "Conflict Diamonds" QUESTION 7: (U) The mining and sales of diamonds by parties to armed conflicts -- particularly Angola, Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of the Congo -- are regarded as a significant factor fueling such hostilities. These diamonds, known as "conflict diamonds," comprise an estimated 3.7% to 15% of the value of the global diamond trade. Do you have any information that "conflict diamonds" are being used to subsidize the activities of terrorist groups, including al-Qaida?


QUESTION 8: A) (U) What is your assessment of the level of assistance provided by the government of Vietnam to the US on POW/MIA issues?
B) (U) Do you believe that there is any room for improvement in this area?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Security of the Russian Nuclear Stockpile

A) (U) What is your assessment of the safety and security of the Russian nuclear stockpile (including weapons grade material)?
B) (U) How does the security of the Russian nuclear stockpile compare to the security of the U.S. nuclear stockpile?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Russia's Closure of Intelligence Facilities in Cuba and Vietnam

QUESTION 10: (U) On October 17, 2001, Russia announced that it will close its large electronic intelligence base in Lourdes, Cuba, as well as its naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam.
A) (U) What is the status of the closure of these facilities?
B) (U) What will be the impact of the closure of these facilities on Russia's relations with Cuba and Vietnam?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Russian Military Capabilities

A) (U) If present trends continue, what will be the Russian military's capability to conduct operations 5 years from now?
B) (U) Do these trends indicate the possibility that Russia may soon have insufficient military force to retain order within Russia?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Transfer of Technology from Russia

A) (U) What general trends has the Intelligence Community noticed of scientists, technology and conventional and unconventional military sales from Russia to other nations?
B) (U) What trends have you detected that Russian nuclear materials, BW, CW or ballistic missile-related materials or technology have found their way to the international black market?
C) (U) What are the implications of these trends for U.S. security?

QUESTION AREA: (U) The Situation in North Korea.

QUESTION 13: A) (U) What is the likelihood that North and South Korea will unify within the next 5 years and what is the likelihood that unification between North and South Korea will be a peaceful process?
B) (U) Under what circumstances would a war be likely?
C) (U) How strong is Kim Jong-il's hold on power?
D) (U) Who will likely succeed him?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Trends in Conventional Arms Transfer Activities

A) (U) What are the most recent major trends you have identified in conventional arms transfer activities with respect to sales to: the Middle East from foreign suppliers, to China by Russia, and all suppliers to Iran?
B) (U) What specific major conventional weapons systems have been transferred from Russia to: Iran, and China?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Implications of U.S. Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty

QUESTION 15: (U) On December 13, 2001, President Bush notified Russia that the U.S. intends to withdraw from the ABM Treaty - the withdrawal to be completed in June of this year.
A) (U) How will Russia react militarily to the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty?
B) (U) What will China's likely military reaction be?
C) (U) What is the likelihood that the deployment of a U.S. ballistic missile defense will lead to the escalation of ballistic missile and tactical missile defense systems by other countries, as well as a commensurate increase in the number of ballistic and tactical missiles to overwhelm these defensive systems?

QUESTION AREA: (U) North Korea's Taepo Dong-2

QUESTION 16: (U) Last December's NIE on the ballistic missile threat states that "North Korea's multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized (several hundred kilogram) payload, may be ready for flight-testing."
A) (U) What will be the impact of the continuation of the North's flight test moratorium on the development of this missile?
2) (U) Under what circumstances would North Korea be likely to use its missile capability against the U.S.?
C) (U) What is the current estimate of the size of North Korea's nuclear weapon arsenal?
D) (U) How confident are we that North Korea is complying with the terms of the 1994 Agreed Framework regarding plutonium production activities in Yongbyan?

QUESTION AREA: (U) Nonmissile Means for Delivering Weapons of Mass Destruction

QUESTION 17: (U) Last December's NIE on the ballistic missile threat states that "[s]everal countries could develop a mechanism to launch SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles), MRBMs [medium-range ballistic missiles], or land-attack cruise missiles from forward-based ships or other platforms; a few are likely to do so -- more likely for cruise missiles -- before 2015."
A) (U) Which countries have the capability to threaten U.S. territory with missiles from ships or other platforms.
B) (U) Which nations are the likeliest to do so?
C) (U) What is the Intelligence Community's ability to monitor this threat and provide early warning against an attack?

QUESTION AREA: (U) The Impact of HIV/AIDS and Other Infectious Diseases

A) (U) What will be the impact of HIV/AIDS on Africa and other countries 10 years from now?
B) (U) Upon which countries is HIV/AIDS affecting the military and economy the most?
C) (U) Where do these trends seem to be heading in the long term?
D) (U) What other infectious diseases - such as tuberculosis, malaria and hepatitis - will have the most impact over the next 10 years?

QUESTION AREA: Criminal Organizations and Networks

A) (U) What is the likelihood that criminal organizations and networks will expand the scale and scope of their activities over the next 10 years?
B) (U) What is the likelihood that such groups will traffic in nuclear, biological or chemical weapons?